Oct 28, 2015 | Market Outlook
According to the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index, U.S. home prices increased by 0.40 percent in August, which boosted year-over-year home price growth to 5.10 percent. Denver, Colorado continued to lead in home price gains with a monthly increase of 0.90 percent and a year-over-year gain of 10.70 percent. San Francisco, California also posted a year-over-year gain of 10.70 percent, but posted a month-to-month loss of -0.10 percent. Portland, Oregon posted a year-over-year gain of 9.40 percent with a month-to-month gain of 1.10 percent.
Cities with the slowest growing home prices year-over-year included New York City with a reading of 1.80 percent; Chicago, Illinois and Washington D.C. each posted year-over-year gains of 1.90 percent.
Majority of Cities Show Home Price Gains
Before seasonal adjustments, home prices were higher in 18 of 20 cities; after seasonal adjustments, 11 cities had higher home prices, four were unchanged and five cities had lower home prices. After adjustments for inflation, current home price growth approached rates seen in the housing boom of 2005and 2006, but current home price growth is driven by a slim supply of available homes rather than excessive demand seen during the housing boom.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices for sales of homes related to mortgages owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 5.50 percent year over year.
New Home Sales Slump in September
Sales of new homes dropped by 11.50 percent in September; this was the lowest level since last November. The drop largely attributed to a steeper than usual drop in home sales in the Northeast, which accounted for 62 percent of slumping home prices. Over the past two years, the Northeast region accounted for 32 percent of declining home sales. Low inventories of available homes and rising home prices contributed to the slump in sales; home builders are working to close the gap between available homes and current demand. September’s supply of available homes increased to a 5.80 month supply from August’s reading of a 4.90 percent
Analysts said that September’s inventory of homes for sale reached its highest level in and a half years and also noted that homes under construction had achieved their highest volume in six and a half years. Although millennials are expected to boost home sales as they begin to start families, some analysts pointed out that the slump in sales coincided with indications that third quarter growth may be weaker than economic growth during the second quarter of 2015.
Oct 26, 2015 | Market Outlook
Last week’s economic news included the National Association of Home Builders Index, Housing Starts and FHFA’s report on August home sales. The National Association of Realtors® released its monthly report on sales of previously owned homes.
Builder Confidence and Housing Starts Post Gains
The Wells Fargo National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index for September posted its highest level of builder confidence in 10 years a higher than expected results with a reading of 64 for October. Analysts expected a reading of 62 based on September’s reading of 61.
The NAHB Wells Fargo Housing Market Index reading is based on three builder confidence readings. Builder confidence in current market conditions rose three points to a reading of 70; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months rose seven points to 75 and buyer traffic in new housing developments held steady with a reading of 47. Any reading over 50 indicates that more builders are confident about market conditions than those who are not.
This news was consistent with September housing starts, which were also higher. The U.S. Commerce Department reported September’s housing starts at an annual level of 1.206 million starts against expectations of 1.139 million starts and August’s reading of 1.132 million housing starts.
Sales of Previously Owned Homes Surpass Expectations
September sales of pre-owned homes surpassed expectations according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors®. Sales of previously owned homes reached 5.55 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis against an expected reading of 5.34 million sales. August’s reading was adjusted downward from 5.31 million sales to 5.30 million sales of previously owned homes.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors®, cited lower mortgage rates, higher demand for homes and low inventories of available homes as driving higher sales. Slight easing of mortgage credit standards was also said to be driving home sales.
FHFA’s Home Price Index for August showed that home prices for properties associated with mortgages owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased at a rate of 5.05 percent in August as compared to a growth rate of 5.80 percent year-over-year in August 2014.
Mortgage Rates Mixed, Weekly Jobless Claims Lower
Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims yielded mixed results. Freddie Mac reported that average rates for fixed rate mortgages dipped with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage three basis points lower at 3.79 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by five basis points to 2.98 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage ticked upward by one basis point to 2.89 percent. Average discount points were 0.60 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, 0.50 percent for a a5-year fixed rate mortgage and were unchanged at 0.40 percent for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage.
Weekly jobless claims were lower than expectations with a reading of 259,000 new claims filed against expectations of 265,000 new jobless claims. New claims were higher than the previous week’s reading of 256,000 new claims. Analysts are keeping an eye on jobs reports as stronger job markets are essential to expanding home sales.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic news includes Case-Shiller reports on home prices along with reports on new home sales, consumer confidence and consumer sentiment. Core inflation readings will be released Friday after Thursday’s releases of Freddie Mac mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims.
Oct 23, 2015 | Market Outlook
Housing markets show continued strength as the National Association of Realtors® reported that sales of existing homes reached their second highest level since February 2007. Sales of pre-owned homes increased by 4.70 percent and reached 5.55 million sales on a seasonally adjusted annual basis against analyst expectations of 5.34 million sales and August’s reading of 5.30 million sales of previously owned homes.
August’s reading for existing home sales was revised downward from 5.31 million sales. Economists said that August’s lower than expected sales of existing homes may have been influenced by volatility in financial markets and concerns over mortgage rates may have kept would-be home buyers on the sidelines, but September’s reading showed that August’s dismal readings were an aberration rather than a trend.
Higher Home Sales Driven by Low Mortgage Rates
Low mortgage rates are making homes more affordable, a fact that’s reflected by current inventories of available homes. At the current sales pace, there is a 4.8 month supply of available homes as compared to September 2014’s reading of a 5.40 month supply of available homes.
In addition to average mortgage rates hovering below four percent, industry advocates s cited stronger job markets and also indicated that a slight easing of mortgage credit standards are driving home sales. Increased demand for homes is causing home prices to rise. The national average price of a home rose to $221,900, which was 6.10 percent higher than for September 2014.
Housing Recovery: 2015 Could Show Best Results Since 2007
Lawrence Yun Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors® said that although some economists expect home sales to cool down before the end of 2015, it’s possible that 2015 will end with the best home sales figures since 2007. Mr. Yun said characterized the housing recovery as “a slow steady process” and said “This year, it’s finally coming out.”
On the other hand, some analysts are skeptical about how housing markets can maintain their momentum into 2016. First-time buyers are losing market share in home sales, with their participation rate decreasing from 32 percent in August to 29 percent in September. First-time buyers play an integral role in housing markets, as their purchase of starter homes allows first-time homeowners to buy larger homes. First-time buyers also represent new demand for homes, which is essential to expanding housing markets.
Oct 19, 2015 | Market Outlook
Last week’s economic reports included Consumer Price Index and Core index for September, the minutes of the FOMC meeting held September 15 and 17, and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. The details:
FOMC Minutes Hint at Looming Rate Hike as Inflation Lags
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in September suggest that while Fed policy makers have reservations about low inflation and labor markets, they may go ahead and raise the target federal funds rate from its current range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent. When the fed does raise rates, consumers can expect to see higher mortgage rates as well as loan rates on products such as personal loans and credit cards. FOMC members also expressed concerns over lagging inflation below the FOMC benchmark of 2.00 percent.
September’s Core Consumer Price Index report showed a slight reduction as consumer prices fell by -0.20 percent which matched analyst’s expectations and was lower than August’s reading of -0.10 percent. The reduction in consumer prices was caused by falling fuel prices. The Core Consumer Price Index for September, which does not include readings for energy or food prices, rose by -0.20 percent which exceeded predictions of an 0.10 percent increase and August’s reading of +0.10 percent.
Mortgage Rates Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall
Freddie Mac reported that fixed mortgage rates rose while rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage held steady last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose by six basis points to 3.82 percent while the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose by four basis points to 3.03 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at 2.88 percent. Average discount points were unchanged at 0.60 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
New jobless claims fell to 255,000 against expectations of 270,000 and the prior week’ reading of 262,000 new claims. The four-week rolling average of new claims fell by 2250 new jobless claims and reached its lowest level since 1973.
In other jobs-related news, job openings fell from July’s reading of 5.70 million to 5.40 million in August. The Labor Department also reported that the hiring rate and quit rates held steady at 3.60 percent and 1.90 percent.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic news releases include The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, September Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales in addition to usual weekly reports on mortgage rates and weekly jobless claims.
Oct 13, 2015 | Market Outlook
Last week’s economic reports included the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes and Weekly Jobless Claims. Also, the new mortgage TRID rules went into effect. Here are the details:
TRID (TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure) Goes Into Effect
TRID, or TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure, which is also known as the “Know Before You Owe” rule will change the mortgage process by altering some standard loan forms and practices. Originally slated to go into effect August 1, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) actually took effect on October 3.
On Wednesday, October 7, 2015, the House of Representatives approved HR 3192, “The Homebuyers Assistance Act”, which would provide a safe harbor for lenders who act in good faith to comply with the new TRID mortgage disclosure requirements. The bill will still need to be passed by the US Senate and signed by the President in order to become law.
Home buyers can expect to be using two new forms under TRID — the Loan Estimate and the Closing Disclosure. These two new loan forms are easier to understand and consolidate the earlier standard forms. The forms are also designed to work in combination with each other, which wasn’t happening with the previous forms.
The new forms clearly detail the loan amount, its terms, whether the amount can increase after closing for each section, and the feature of the loan, such as whether there is an early payment penalty or not.
The forms are designed to provide the buyer with more time to review the costs associated with the mortgage. The Loan Estimate document is due to the buyer three days after applying for the loan, while the Closing Disclosure must be presented three days before closing.
The CFPB has offered a special guide for real estate professionals.
Real Estate Professionals Guide (http://www.consumerfinance.gov/know-before-you-owe/real-estate-professionals/)
Mortgage Rates Tick Downward
Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped lower to 3.76 percent from 3.85 percent the previous week; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also lower at 2.99 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at an average rate of 2.88 percent. Average discount points for both fixed rate products was.6 percent while the discount points for the adjustable product was.2 percent.
Jobless Claims Fall To 42-Year Low
New unemployment claims dropped to 263,000 against expectations of 271,000 new jobless claims and the prior week’s reading of 277,000 new jobless claims. Some experts argued that the drop may have had to due with seasonal employment trends. The U.S. labor-force participation rate was reported at a 38-year low at 62.4 percent in September.
Oct 5, 2015 | Market Outlook
Last week’s economic reports included Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending and several reports on jobs and employment. The details:
Pending Home Sales Down as Home Prices Rise
Pending home sales dipped in August, which is consistent with the waning spring and summer peak sales period for homes. Pending home sales were down by -1.40 percent as compared to July’s gain of 0.50 percent. Pending home sales indicate future closings and mortgage loan volume.
Home prices rose in July according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which reported that home prices for the 20-City Home Price Index rose from June’s reading of 4.90 percent in June to 5.00 in July. Higher home prices contribute to falling home sales as fewer buyers can afford to enter the market.
Construction spending increased in August to a reading of 0.70 percent as compared to expectations of 0.60 percent growth and July’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Builder confidence readings suggest how builders view housing market conditions and can ultimately impact housing supplies and markets.
Mortgage Rates Tick Downward
Freddie Mac reported that the average mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was one basis point lower at 3.85 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also one basis point lower at 3.07 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged at an average rate of 2.91 percent. Average discount points were mixed at 0.70, 0.60 and 0.50 percent respectively.
New Jobless Claims Rise; Unemployment Rate Holds Steady
New unemployment claims increased to 277,000 against expectations of 271,000 new jobless claims and the prior week’s reading of 267,000 new jobless claims. The national unemployment rate held steady at 5.10 percent, which supports analysts’ preference for using monthly data as opposed to volatile weekly readings for identifying and tracking economic trends.
ADP Payrolls reported 200,000 private sector jobs added in September as compared to August’s reading of 186,000 new private sector jobs added. The Commerce Department reported that Non-farm Payrolls grew by 142,000 jobs in September as compared to expectations of 200,000 new jobs and August’s reading of 136,000 jobs added.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include release the minutes of the recent FOMC meeting along with weekly releases of new jobless claims data and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates.
