Nov 29, 2011 | Housing Analysis
If you plan to buy of new construction in Massachusetts sometime in 2012, don’t expect today’s low prices. Like everything in housing of late, the market for newly-built homes appears to be stabilizing and, in some markets, improving.
As foreshadowed by this month’s strong Homebuilder Confidence survey, the Census Bureau reports that the number of new homes sold rose to a 6-month high in October, climbing to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.
A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction. It’s the opposite of an “existing home”.
Home buyers are comparing new construction to home resales and liking what they see. At the current sales pace, the nation’s complete new home inventory would now be depleted in just 6.3 months. This marks the lowest home supply since April 2010 — the last month of the last year’s federal homebuyer tax credit.
By building only to meet new demand, builders are keeping home supplies in check, and home prices stable. They’ve also found a niche market — 80% of homes sold last month sold for less than $300,000.
Split by region, the Census Bureau reports October’s New Home Sales as follows : (more…)
Oct 27, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Home builders continue to sell homes and work through inventory.
According to data from the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in September jumped 6 percent from the month prior, beating analyst expectations. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, buyers in Massachusetts and nationwide closed on 313,000 newly-built homes last month.
It’s the highest reading since April and a major reason why the available number of new homes for sale is shrinking.
As compared to September 2010, there are 19% fewer homes for sale nationwide. At today’s sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be “sold out” in 6.2 months – the quickest sell-out pace since the April 2010 federal home buyer tax credit expiration.
It’s no wonder builder confidence is rising. (more…)
Sep 28, 2011 | Housing Analysis
According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold slid for the fourth straight month in August, easing 2 percent from July. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 295,000 newly-built homes last month.
August marked the lowest new home sales tally since February. News outlets are jumping on the story, with at least one calling it a “blow” to the housing market.
That’s an unfair assessment.
It’s tough for the new home market to tally big sales numbers when the number of homes for sale is dwindling and, in August, that’s exactly what we saw. The number of new homes for sale nationwide fell to 162,000 last month. This is the fewest number of new homes for sale since at least 1993, the first year the Census Bureau tracked such data.
In other words, using New Home Sales as a housing market gauge may be misleading. A better metric may be new home supply.
In August, new home supply edged 0.1 months higher to 6.6 months. This means that, at today’s sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold out in 6.6 months. (more…)
Aug 24, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Sales of newly-built homes slipped in July, falling 1 percent as compared to June. Home buyers closed on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 298,000 units, the lowest reading since February.
The supply of new homes, however, remained flat.
July’s 6.6 months of supply equaled June’s tally and remains near the multi-year low of 6.5 months set in May of this year. The figures suggest a new home market that’s finding its balance.
Builders are building to meet demand, and not much more.
The New Home Sales report may have read differently if not for the Northeast Region which doubled its sales units in July. The gains buoyed the broader data, re-affirming the importance of looking past national data and focusing on what’s local; the national market is not reflective of any given town
Broken down by region, July New Home Sales fared as follows:
- Northeast Region : +100.0% from June 2011
- Midwest Region : +2.4% from June 2011
- South Region : -7.4% from June 2011
- West Region : -5.9% from June 2011
However, as with most months, it’s important that we recognize the New Home Sales data’s margin of error. (more…)
Jul 27, 2011 | Buying Real Estate, Housing Analysis, News
Home builders are slowly reducing inventory.
According to Census Bureau data, the number of new homes slid 1 percent from May. On a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, home buyers bought 312,000 newly-built homes last month.
It’s the third straight month of falling sales and the headline data casts the Fitchburg housing market in a negative light.
Upon closer inspection, however, the numbers appear quite strong.
First, sales are down marginally. Total units sold have dropped just 2 percent from the highs of the year. And, second, the number of newly-built homes for sale is down markedly from last year
There are 22% fewer new homes for sale today as compared to June 2010
At today’s sales pace, the complete new home inventory would be sold in 6.3 months — the quickest sell-out window since the expiration of the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit.
Builders are feeling better about their business, too. (more…)
