Mar 6, 2012 | Statistics
Home affordability moved higher last quarter, boosted by the lowest mortgage rates in history, a rise in median income, and slow-to-recover home prices throughout Massachusetts and the country.
According to the National Association of Home Builders, the quarterly Home Opportunity Index read 75.9 in 2011’s fourth quarter. More than 3 in 4 homes sold between October-December 2011, in other words, were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.
Never in recorded history have U.S. homes been as affordable on a national level. Even on a regional and local level, affordability soared.
Affordability was highest in the (more…)
Mar 2, 2012 | Mortgage Guidelines
Beginning April 1, 2012, the FHA is once again raising mortgage insurance premiums (MIP) on its newly-insured borrowers throughout Worcester County area and the country.
It’s the FHA’s fourth such increase in the last two years.
Beginning April 1, 2012, upfront mortgage insurance premiums will be higher by 75 basis points, or 0.75%; and annual mortgage insurance premiums will be higher by 10 basis points per year, or 0.10%.
For borrowers with a loan size of $200,000, the new MIP will add $1,500 in one-time loan costs, plus an on-going, annual $200 increase in total mortgage insurance premiums paid.
All new FHA loans are subject to the increase — purchases and refinances.
The FHA is increasing its (more…)
Mar 1, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Standard & Poors released its December 2011 Case-Shiller Index this week. The report is the most widely-cited, private-sector metric for the housing market. The index aims to measures change in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities and nationwide.
According to the report, between November and December 2011, home values fell within 18 of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets; and through the 12 months leading up to December 2011, 19 of 20 tracked markets fell.
Only Detroit posted year-over-year gains, adding 0.50% since December 2010.
Now, these statistics may look dire for the housing market, but it’s important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index — though widely-cited — remains a flawed statistic for everyday buyers and sellers in Worcester County area. Rather, the monthly Case-Shiller Index is more appropriately applied by policy-makers and economists to macro-economic issues than by you and me for buy-or-sell decisions..
There are three ways in which Case-Shiller is flawed — each tied to the way by (more…)
Feb 29, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The housing market appears headed for a strong spring season.
After a brief setback in December, the Pending Home Sales Index resumed its climb in January, posting a 2 percent gain over the month prior.
The data puts pressure on Worcester County area home buyers. This is because a “pending home” is a home that’s under contract to sell, but has not yet sold. It’s tracked by the National Association of REALTORS® and, among all housing statistics, it’s the only one that’s “forward-looking”.
The Pending Home Sales Index is important to home buyers throughout Massachusetts because 80% of homes under contract to sell close within 60 days of contract. In this way, the Pending Home Sales Index forecasts the housing market 1-2 months into the future.
This is very different from how NAR’s Existing Home Sales report works; or, how the Census Bureau’s New Home Sales report works. These two metrics tell us what’s already happened in housing.
By contrast, the Pending Home Sales Index tells us what’s coming next.
January’s Pending Home Sales Index reading lifts the monthly metric to its highest level since April 2010 — the month during which the 2010 federal home buyer tax credit expired — foreshadowing a strong housing market (more…)
Feb 28, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The new construction market rolls on.
As foreshadowed by February’s Homebuilder Confidence survey, which rose to a 4-year high, the Census Bureau reports new homes are selling more quickly than builders have built them, lowering the national “home supply” to levels not seen since 2006.
A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction and, at the current pace of sales, the nation’s entire new home inventory of 151,000 homes would be sold in 5.6 months.
Anything less than 6.0-month supply is thought to connote a “sellers’ market”.
321,000 new homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. 7 of 10 new homes sold for less than $300,000.
The South Region continues to account for the majority of new construction sales, posting a 59% market share in January. South Region sales were up 9 percent as compared to December. The other 3 regions turned in mixed results.
- Northeast Region : +11.1% from December 2011
- Midwest Region : -24.5% from December 2011
- West Region : -10.6% from December 2011
Unfortunately, the Census Bureau’s New Home Sales data could be wrong.
Although New Home Sales were said to fall by about (more…)
