Aug 6, 2018 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller, Commerce Department reports on pending home sales and construction spending and an FOMC statement. Labor sector reports on job creation and the national unemployment rate were released along with the monthly Consumer Confidence Index. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.
Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Holds Steady in May
Home price analysts Case-Shiller reported national home prices rose 0.40 percent in May and were 6.40 percent higher year-over-year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index was 0.20 percent higher in May and 6.50 percent higher year-over-year. Only seven cities reported home price growth in May, but home prices were higher than gains reported in April.
Home price gains were highest in in Seattle, Washington with a seasonally-adjusted year-over-year gain of 13.60 percent: Las Vegas, Nevada; reported seasonally-adjusted home price growth of 12.60 percent. San Francisco, California reported a seasonally-adjusted annual home price growth of 10.90 percent. Analysts said that home price growth may be slowing, but it grew faster than wages and inflation, which continued to present challenges for first-time and moderate-income hone buyers.
Pending home Sales Grow as Construction Spending Dips
The National Association of Realtors® reported an index reading of 106.9, which was 2.50 percent lower than in May. June was the sixth consecutive month that year-over-year pending sales were lower than in the preceding year-over-year period. Pending home sales increased by 0.90 percent in June as compared to a negative reading of -0.50 percent in May.
Construction spending fell by 1.10 percent in June as compared to 1.30 percent growth in May. Analysts expected construction spending to rise by 0.90 percent in June. Home builders continued to face headwinds such as rising materials costs, labor shortages and slim supplies of buildable lots.
Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise
The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced its decision not to raise the federal funds rate, which held steady at a range of 1.75 – 2.00 percent. This news did not stop average mortgage rates from moving up. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose six basis points to 4.60 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage also rose six basis points to 4.08 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages also rose six basis points and averaged3.93 percent.
Weekly jobless claims rose to 218,000 new claims and fell short of analyst expectations of 220,000 new claims filed, which was based on the prior week’s reading of 217,000 new claims.
Unemployment rate Falls Below 4 Percent
July’s National Unemployment Rate dipped to 3.90 percent and matched analyst expectations. In May, unemployment reached 4.00 percent.
Jobs grew in July with ADP posting 219,000 new private-sector jobs and the Commerce Department reported 157,000 new public and private sector jobs added in July. Analysts expected 195,000 new jobs to be added to Non-Farm Payrolls based on 248,000 mew jobs added in June.
The University of Michigan reported that its Consumer Confidence Index gained 0.30 points for an index reading of 127.40 percent.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on consumer expectations, July job openings, inflation and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.
Jul 31, 2018 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic readings included reports on sales of new and pre-owned homes, mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.
New Home Sales Slide; Pre-owned Home Sales Meet Expectations
Commerce Department reported lower sales of new homes in June. Sales were expected to reach 666,000 sales on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, but the actual reading slipped by 5.30 percent to a pace of 631,000 new home sales. Analysts cited higher building costs, home prices and mortgage rates sidelined some buyers.
Concerns over inadequate inventories of available homes also impacted sales of newly-built homes. New homes sold at a rate 6.90 percent higher year-over-year, but analysts cautioned that home price appreciation and demand may be at or near their peak.
The National Association of Realtors® reported an annual pace of 5.38 million sales of previously-owned homes for June, which matched analysts’ expectations. May’s reading was 5.41 million sales of pre-owned homes.
Analysts caution that Commerce Department readings are subject to adjustment due to the relatively small number of home sales used to represent all sales of pre-owned homes.
Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Rise
Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week with incremental increases in average mortgage rates. Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages were two basis points higher at 4.54 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.02 percent and were two basis points higher.
Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were one basis point higher and averaged 3.87 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
First-time jobless claims rose to 217,000 claims filed; this reading fell short of the expected reading of 219,000 new claims but was higher than the 208,000 new claims reported for the prior week.
What‘s Ahead
Next week’s scheduled economic releases include readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and readings on pending home sales and construction spending. Labor reports including public and private sector jobs growth and the national unemployment rate will also be released.
Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be published.
Jul 16, 2018 | Financial Reports
Last Week’s economic readings included reports on inflation, mortgage rates, new jobless claims and consumer sentiment.
Inflation Slows in June
The Consumer Price Index for June inched down to 0.10 percent growth in June as compared to May’s reading of 0.20 percent. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.20 percent, which matched expectations and May’s reading of 0.20 percent.
Year-over-year inflation rose by 2.90 percent. This was the highest rate of growth in six years. Inflation increased by a year-over-year rate of 1.60 percent in the prior year.
While inflationary growth signals strengthening economic conditions, it can also cause challenges for consumers if inflation outpaces wage growth. In recent years rapidly, rising home prices have outstripped inflation and wage growth.
Mortgage Rates Rise as New Jobless Claims Fall
Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week for the first time since June. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose one basis point to an average of 4.53 percent; The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage rose three basis points to 4.02 percent.
The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose 12 basis points to 3.86 percent. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 6/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Analysts said that global economic trends caused the 10-year Treasury yield to rise as investors moved away from stocks.
First-time jobless claims fell by 18,000 claims to 214,000 new claims filed; this approached the lowest level of new jobless claims in 49 years. Analysts said that current low levels of new claims showed the healthiest jobs markets since the dot com boom in the 1990s.
Fewer first-time jobless claims suggested that more workers are confident about quitting their current jobs for new jobs. Improved consumer confidence in job security could mean that more consumers will be ready to buy homes.
Consumer sentiment also dropped in July according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 97.1 as compared to expectations of 98.9 and June’s reading of 98.2. Concerns over recently imposed tariffs caused consumer sentiment to dip.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on retail sales, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.
Jul 9, 2018 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic releases included monthly readings on construction spending, public and private sector job growth and June’s national unemployment rate. Weekly readings included Freddie Mac mortgage rates and new jobless claims.
Construction Spending Rises in May
According to the Commerce, construction spending rose 0.40 percent in May; public sector construction spending rose 0.70 percent and private sector spending rose by 0.30 percent. Residential construction rose by o.80 percent, which analysts regarded as a good sign for the economy. Building more homes has long been identified as the only solution for persistent housing shortages that cause high demand for homes and rapidly rising home prices.
Analysts said that volatility and heavy revisions to government reporting, construction spending readings are subject to significant change. April’s reading of 1.90 percent growth was downwardly revised to 0.90 percent growth.
Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Fall
Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages were three basis points lower at an average of 4.52 percent. 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.99 percent and were five basis points lower than for the previous week. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.74 percent and were 13 basis points lower than for the prior week.
First-time jobless claims fell last week to 231,000 new claims as compared to 200,000 new claims expected.and 244,000 new claims were filed in the prior week.
Unemployment ticks up as Public and Private Sector Job Growth Slows
ADP payrolls fell to 177,000 private sector jobs were added in June as compared to 189,000 jobs added in May. The Commerce Department reported 213,000 public and private sector jobs added in June, which beat expectations of 200,000 jobs added in June. 244,000 jobs were added in May.
The National unemployment grew to 4.0 percent in June as compared to May’s reading of 3.80 percent. Analysts attributed the rise in the unemployment rate to 600,000 new job seekers entering the market in June.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, core inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.
Jul 2, 2018 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Shiller housing market indices and data released on new and pending home sales. Weekly releases on mortgage rates and first-time unemployment claims along with the Consumer Sentiment Index for June were also posted.
Case-Shiller Reports Rapid Home Price Growth in April
April home prices ticked downward by one-tenth percent for the National Home Price Index, which reported 6.40 percent growth year-over-year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index also dipped by one-tenth percent to 6.60 percent year-over-year. Analysts note that home prices continue to outpace wage growth and inflation, which limits affordability for many prospective home buyers.
Seattle, Washington held the top spot on the 20-City Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 13.10 percent; Las Vegas, Nevada followed with year-over-year home price growth of 12.70 percent and San Francisco, California reported home price growth of 10.90 percent year-over-year. New York, New York was the only metro area to report negative home price growth. Analysts said recent tax law changes and a glut of new apartments impacted home prices.
New Home Sales Rise as Pending Home Sales Fall
Sales of new homes rose in May to a seasonally-adjusted annual level of 689,000 sales. Analysts expected 668,000 sales based on April’s downwardly-revised reading of 646,000 new homes sold. Year-to-date, sales of new homes were 8.80 percent higher than for the same period in 2017.
Rapid home price growth has been driven by high demand and limited inventories of homes for sale. Supplies of new homes dipped from a 5.40-month supply in April to a 5.20-month supply of homes for sale. Real estate pros consider a six-month supply of homes an average inventory.
Pending home sales dipped in May by -0.50 percent, as compared to April’s reading of -1.30 percent. Low supplies of available homes have sidelined buyers who haven’t found homes that they want or can afford. High demand has created bidding wars and cash buyers in some markets have sidelined moderate-income buyers and those who need financing to purchase homes.
Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims Rise
Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 4.55 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.04 percent and were unchanged from the prior week.
The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was four basis points higher at 3.87 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
New jobless claims rose to 227,000 first-time claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 218,000 claims filed. Analysts expected 220,000 initial jobless claims.
Consumer sentiment fell to an index reading of 98.20 in June as compared to May’s reading of 99.30. according to the University of Michigan.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending and minutes of the most recent meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, Labor sector readings on Non-Farm payrolls, ADP payrolls and national unemployment will also be released.
Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released on schedule. U.S. Financial Markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Independence Day.
