Aug 5, 2019 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic news included readings from Case-Shiller on home prices, pending home sales, construction spending and a post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve.
Consumer sentiment was released along with Commerce Department reports on public and private sector job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.
Home Price Growth Slows in May
The Case-Shiller National Home price Index showed slower home price growth in May; this was the 14th consecutive month of slower growth in national home prices and the lowest reading for home price growth since the Great Recession.
Home prices grew by 3.40 percent on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to a 3.50 percent reading in April. While easing home price growth is a plus for would-be home buyers, slower growth in home prices could be a sign of overall economic slowing.
Construction spending was lower in June and fell by 1.20 percent. Analysts expected spending to slow at 0.10 percent based on May’s reading of -0.80 percent. Les spending suggests fewer homes will be built and demand for homes could increase based on the combined effects of slower price gains, low mortgage rates and fewer available homes.
Pending home sales jumped 2.80 percent in June and 1.60 percent year-over-year according to the National Association of Realtors®. The year-over-year gain was the first in 17 months. Analysts said that slower growth in home prices coupled with lower mortgage rates would prompt more buyers to enter the housing market.
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee lowered the Fed’s benchmark interest rate range on Wednesday. Committee members voted to lower the key fed rate range from 2.25-2.50 percent to 2.00-2.25 percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that this rate reduction was not first in a series of rate cuts, but one-off rate cuts by the Fed are not common.
Job Growth Mixed, Unemployment Rate Unchanged
Labor-sector readings for July showed mixed results for public and private-sector job growth, ADP reported 156,000 private sector jobs were added in July as compared to 112,000 jobs added in July.
The Commerce Department reported 164,000 private and public-sector jobs added in July as compared to June’s reading of 193,000 public-and private-sector jobs added. July’s lower reading was not unexpected as analysts projected 163,000 public and private-sector jobs added in July.
The national unemployment rate held steady at 3.70 percent; this was higher than in recent months, but remained relatively low, which suggested few layoffs and strong job markets.
Freddie Mac reported little change to average mortgage rates. 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.75 percent and were one basis point higher than for the prior week. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages were two basis points higher and averaged 3.20 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.46 percent and were one basis point lower.
Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.
First-time jobless claims rose to 215,000 claims filed and surpassed expectations of 210,000 new claims filed, which was based on the prior week’s reading of 208,000 first-time claims filed.
Last week’s economic reports wrapped up with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reading for July, which was two points higher than June’s index reading of 98.2. Consumers surveyed reported paying off debt and increasing savings as a hedge against slower economic growth.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s economic readings include weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.
Jul 29, 2019 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reports included readings on sales of new and pre-owned homes and weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.
Realtors® Report Sales of Pre-Owned Homes Fall in June
Sales of previously-owned homes fell last month according to real estate pros. 5.27 million homes would be sold in 2019 if the current pace of sales was unchanged for all of 2019. Analysts expected a reading of 5.33 million sales based on May’s reading of 5.38 million sales. Analysts said that sales of pre-owned homes fell despite lower mortgage rates and the seasonal peak home-buying season.
Sales of pre-owned homes rose 1.60 percent in the Northeast and were 1.60 percent higher in the Midwest. Sales fell 3.40 percent in the South and were 3.50 percent lower in the West. Factors contributing to lagging home sales included low inventories of available homes and steadily rising home prices.
Home prices have risen every month for more than seven years. Fewer homes for sale and higher home prices limit buyers’ choices and their ability to qualify for financing needed to buy higher-priced homes.
New Home Sales Rise in June after Two-Month Lull
The sales pace for new single-family homes rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 646,000 sales as compared to an expected sales pace of 657,000 for new homes. May’s reading was downwardly revised from a sales pace of 626,000 sales to 604,000 sales. New homes sold fastest in the South and West and were slower in the Northeast and Midwest regions according to the Commerce Department.
Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall
Freddie Mac reported average mortgage rates approaching three year lows last week. Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.75 percent and were six basis points lower. The average rate for 15-year fixed rate mortgages dropped five basis points to 3.18 percent; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 3.47 percent and were one basis point lower.
First-time jobless claims fell last week to 206,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 218,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 216,000 first-time unemployment claims filed.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s economic reports include readings on housing markets, pending home sales and the post meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a press conference and the Labor Department will release monthly updates for public and private-sector jobs created and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.
Jul 15, 2019 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic releases included reports on inflation, core inflation and minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting held June 18 and 19. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.
Inflation Rate Rises, but Grows at Lowest Pace in Four Months
June’s Consumer Price Index reported the lowest rate of inflation in four months with a year-over-year rate of 1.60 percent growth as compared to May’s year-over-year inflation rate of 1.80 percent. Fuel prices were lower, which helped balance rising costs of rent, clothing and autos. Analysts said that falling inflation rates would be a primary reason why the Fed is likely to cut its key interest rate range later this month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose 0.30 percent in June and surpassed expectations of 0.20 percent growth and May’s 0.10 percent growth rate.
Federal Reserve policymakers base their decisions on the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining maximum employment and economic growth, which is benchmarked at 2.00 percent annual inflation. FOMC members repeatedly state their commitment to reviewing domestic and global economic news and willingness to adjust Fed policy according to changing economic conditions and current events.
Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims
Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week; Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages were unchanged at 3.75 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages rose four basis points on average to 3.22 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable mortgages rose one basis point to 3.40 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
Initial jobless claims fell by 13,000 claims to 209,000 claims filed and was lower than the expected reading of 221,000 new claims filed. The July 4 holiday likely impacted the number of initial claims filed.
What‘s Next
This week’s scheduled economic news includes the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued and a report on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.
Jul 8, 2019 | Financial Reports
Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on construction spending and reports on public and private sector jobs. Monthly readings for public and private sector jobs and the national unemployment rate were released along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims.
Construction Spending Dips in May
May construction spending fell to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 0.80 percent growth at a pace of $1.3 trillion as compared to April’s reading, which was adjusted to 0.40 percent growth after reports of a flat reading. Year-over-year construction spending was 2.30 percent lower in May.
High materials costs and shortages of workers continued to dampen builder sentiment as shortages of available homes added to buyer concerns. Slower home price growth and shortages of affordable homes also impacted housing markets, but low mortgage rates encouraged qualified home buyers to lock in low rates.
Recent news reports suggest that economic growth may be slowing along with home price growth, but public and private-sector jobs grew in June after low readings in May. The Commerce Department’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 224,000 public and private sector jobs added in June; ADP reported 102,000 private-sector jobs added in June after May’s lean reading of 41,000 jobs added. The national unemployment rate ticked up to 3.70percent in June as compared to May’s reading of 3.60 percent.
Mortgage Rates Rise, New Jobless Claims Fall
Average mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged two basis points higher at 3.78 percent. 15-year fixed mortgage rates averaged two basis points higher at 3.18 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose six basis points to 3.45 percent.
Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent.
Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000 new claims filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 229,000 initial jobless claims.
What‘s Ahead
This week’s economic reports include testimony by Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve and release of minutes of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in June. Reports on inflation and weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims will also be released.
Jul 1, 2019 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reports included readings on home prices, sales of pre-owned homes and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Home Price Growth Slips in April
Case-Shiller reported slower home price growth in April; home prices were 0.20 percent lower at 3.50 percent. Increasing inventories of homes for sale provided buyers with more choices and eased demand, which increased in recent years due to severe shortages of available homes.
Cities on the west coast previously dominated home price growth, but the top three cities with highest home prices reported in April were sunbelt cities located east of high-priced west coast cities. Las Vegas, Nevada reported the highest rate of home price growth with 7.20 percent year-over-year.
Phoenix, Arizona followed with 6.00 percent growth and Tampa, Florida home prices grew by 5.60 percent year-over-year in April. Home values in all three cities were hard hit during the recession and are recovering, but not at the double digit rates seen in prior years.
New Home Sales Fall in May
Sales of newly-built homes fell to a five-month low in May according to the Commerce Department. New homes sold at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 626,000 homes as compared to April’s rate of 679,000 new homes sold. May’s reading was 3.70 percent lower than April’s revised reading.
There was a 6.40 month supply of new homes available at May’s sales pace. Real estate pros consider a six-month supply of available homes as average. Sales of new homes were 4.00 percent higher than for the same period in 2018. The median price of new homes sold in May was $308,000 and was 2.70 percent lower than a year ago.
Pending home sales rose in May from April’s negative reading of -1.50 percent to a positive reading of 1.10 percent. This reading lines up with the increase in homes for sale.
Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims
Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week with the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage 11 basis points lower than for the prior week. Average rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages fell nine basis points to 3.16 percent and 3.39 percent respectively.
Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Mortgage applications rose 5 percent from the prior week due to the dip in home loan rates.
Initial jobless claims rose last week to 227,000 new claims filed as compared to 216,000 new claims expected and 217,000 first-time claims filed the prior week. Analysts sad that new jobless claims remain low and that last week’s rise in claims did not reflect weakening in labor markets.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to an index reading of 98.20 in June from May’s reading of 100. Consumer sentiment dropped due to concerns over recent tariffs and resulting increases in consumer prices
What‘s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic news includes releases on construction spending and labor sector reports on public and private sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.
