Dec 22, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Home resales moved to a 10-month high in November, the latest in a series of strong showings from the housing sector.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, November’s Existing Home Sales rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 4.42 million units nationwide — a 4 percent climb from October 2011.
An “existing home” is a home that has been previously occupied and cannot be categorized as new construction.
Home buyers and sellers throughout Massachusetts should take note of November’s numbers because — behind the headlines — there’s a series of statistics that foretell higher home prices ahead.
First, the total number of homes for sale nationwide dipped to 2.58 million, an 18% reduction from November 2010 and represents the fewest number of homes for sale since February 2007.
At the current sales pace, the complete home resale inventory would be sold in 7.0 months.
And, second, the real estate trade group reports that 33% of all homes under contract “failed” for some reason last month.
Contract failures can occur because of mortgage denials in underwriting; home inspection issues; and homes appraising for less than their respective purchase prices.
In other words, despite a reduction in the number of homes for sale, and a rash of failed contracts, Existing Home Sales volume is still on the rise.
Broken-down by buyer-type, here’s to whom home sellers were selling in November :
- First-time buyers : 35% of home resales, up from 34% in October 2011
- Repeat buyers : 46% of home resales, down from 48% in October 2011
- Investor buyers : 19% of home resales, up from 18% in October 2011
Given high demand for home resales and shrinking home supplies, we should expect that home prices will rise through December 2011 and into early-2012, at least. Recent Housing Starts data supports this notion.
Thankfully, mortgage rates remain low. Low mortgage rates help keep homes affordable.
Dec 2, 2011 | Housing Analysis
If you’re waiting for home prices to reach its bottom, you may have missed your window.
After 3 consecutive months of easing, the Pending Home Sales Index jumped 10 percent in October, lending credence to the belief that housing is in recovery.
The Pending Home Sales Index is a monthly publication from the National Association of REALTORS®. It measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide. October’s reading is the highest for all of 2011, and the second-highest dating back to April 2010.
April 2010 was the last month of the last year’s federal home buyer tax credit.
For buyers and sellers in Worcester and nationwide, the Pending Home Sales Index is a housing metric worth watching. Different from the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports which report on “the past”, the Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking housing market indicator.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months.
The majority of the rest close within (more…)
Nov 23, 2011 | Housing Analysis
The housing market continues to signal that a broad rebound is underway. In October, despite sparse home inventory, the number of properties sold increased 1.4% nationwide.
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, October Existing Home Sales gained 70,000 units as compared to September, registering 4.97 million existing homes sold overall.
An “existing home” is a home that has been previously occupied and, as compared to prior months, the stock of homes for sale is depleted.
Just 3.3 million homes were listed for sale last month. This represents a 2 percent drop from September and marks the sparsest home resale inventory of 2011.
The current home supply would last 8.0 months at today’s sales pace — the fastest rate since January 2010.
The real estate trade group’s report contained other noteworthy statistics, too : (more…)
Oct 28, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Nationwide, fewer homes are going under contract to sell.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell 5 percent last month. September marks the fourth consecutive month in which the index has dropped.
The Pending Home Sales Index is a monthly index which measures the number of homes under contract to sell, but not yet closed. As such, it’s among the few “forward-looking” housing indicators; a data set meant to predict future home sales.
80% of homes under contract close within 2 months so, if the September Pending Home Sales Index is to be believed, we should expect home sales to decline through October and November.
And that’s before we account for cancelled contracts.
Also from the National Association of REALTORS®, we learn that 18 percent of homes under contract failed to close in September. This is double the failure rate from September 2010 and it, too, should drag Existing Home Sales volume lower this fall.
On a seasonally-adjusted, regional basis, the Pending Home Sales Index fell everywhere.
- Northeast Region: -4.7% from August
- Midwest Region : -6.2% from August
- South Region : -5.5% from August
- West Region : -2.1% from August
For home buyers and sellers in Fitchburg , though, regional data remains too broad to be useful. Housing markets are local, meaning that each block on each street on each city has its own distinct economy. When 9 states are grouped into a single “region”, it’s neither helpful nor relevant to people making buy/sell decisions.
That said, the Pending Home Sales Index remains important because it’s about housing, and housing is a keystone of the U.S. economic recovery.
The market looks ideal for buyers. Home prices are rising, but slowly; and mortgage rates remain near rock-bottom levels. Home affordability is high and should remain that way for the next few weeks.
If you’re shopping for a home, it’s an excellent time to go under contract.
Oct 21, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Despite fewer homes for sale nationwide, the number of home resales remains steady.
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, September’s Existing Home Sales eased by 150,000 units, falling to 4.91 million units nationwide.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied and, despite last month’s drop, September’s sales volume remains the second-highest on record since April 2011.
This statistic is noteworthy for two reasons :
- There are 9.9% fewer homes available for sale as compared to 12 months ago
- Contract “failures” are twice as high as compared to September 2010, now averaging 18 percent nationwide
A contract failure is typically the result of homes not appraising for the purchase price; mortgage denials in the underwriting process; and, insurmountable home inspection issues. (more…)
