Aug 29, 2013 | Housing Analysis
The National Association of REALTORS reported Wednesday that pending sales of existing homes fell by 1.30 percent in July.
According to the organization’s Pending Home Sales Index, this was the second straight month that pending home sales dropped. July’s Pending Home Sales Index reading was 109.50.
Signed Purchase Contracts For Existing Homes Tracked In The U.S.
- ·Northeast: – 6.60 percent
- ·Midwest: – 1.00 percent
- ·West: – 4.90 percent
- ·South: + 2.60 percent
Pending home sales were 6.70 percent higher year-over-year on a national basis. This indicates that the housing recovery is progressing, but at a slower pace.
Short supplies of available homes have also impacted sales. In some areas homebuyers are facing competition from multiple buyers for individual homes.
Another report released earlier in the week showed that the pace of rising home prices also slowed. This connects with fewer pending home sales, as when demand for homes cools, prices are likely to fall as well.
Pending home sales serve as an indicator for future home sales, as purchase contracts typically lead to completed home sales within two to three months.
Housing Market Developments Could Delay Fed Stimulus Decision
The Federal Reserve has indicated that it may begin reducing its stimulus program of buying $85 billion per month in U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed has repeatedly stated that continued monitoring of economic trends would weigh heavily on its decision if and when to modify its current stimulus program.
Mortgage rates have risen more than a percentage point since May when the Fed began discussing potentially “tapering” its monthly bond purchases.
The Fed may interpret the slower pace of rising home prices and pending home sales as a sign that it’s not yet time to reduce its stimulus program. This could help with lowering mortgage rates, which are expected to rise when the Fed reduces its monthly securities purchases and eventually ends its stimulus plan.
Housing has led the economic recovery; faltering indicators in the housing sector suggest that the overall recovery is a fragile process.
Aug 28, 2013 | Housing Analysis
Home prices are still rising, but at a slower pace according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June. Home prices for the cities surveyed in the HPI rose by 12.10 percent on an annual basis as compared to May’s reading of 12.20 percent.
This is the highest rate of monthly growth for home prices since the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.
June’s home prices remained approximately 23 percent lower than peak prices, but economists consider the bubble peak an anomaly and caution against comparing current home prices to the peak prices seen in 2006.
Overall Housing Price Increase Strongly
Regional home prices reported in June’s HMI were mixed. Case-Shiller publishes a 10-city Index and a 20-city Index of home prices. 13 of 20 cities saw their rates of rising home prices decline from May to June.
Atlanta posted the highest month-to-month gain in home prices at 3.40 percent. Washington, D.C. posted the slowest month-to-month gain in home prices at 1.00 percent.
New York City posted a monthly gain of 2.10 percent in home prices in June; this was its highest rate of increase since 2002.
Both S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June showed annual growth in home prices. The 10-city index posted an annual gain of 11.90 percent and the 20-city Index posted an annual growth rate of 12.10 percent. Las Vegas enjoyed the highest annual rate of home price growth at 24.90 percent.
In year-over-year price gains, Las Vegas and San Francisco’s gains exceeded 20.00 percent, while Atlanta, Detroit and Phoenix posted year-over-year gains of 19.00 percent, 16.40 percent and 19.80 percent respectively.
These figures suggest there’s plenty of room before prices begin to fall, but David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee and S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted that “the monthly city-by-city data show the pace of price increases is moderating.”
Rising Mortgage Rates, Limited Supply Of Homes Slowing Home Price Growth
Mortgage rates remain historically low, but have risen sharply over the last few weeks. This trend, coupled with persistently low inventories of available homes is seen as a significant reason for slower growth in home prices.
Investors and would-be home buyers are also waiting to see if the Federal Reserve reduces its monthly stimulus program; such a reduction would likely cause mortgage rates to rise further.
The Fed has not set a date for “tapering” its monthly stimulus, but has indicated it will do so soon if economic conditions continue to improve.
Aug 26, 2013 | Housing Analysis
Last week brought mixed economic news, but Leading Indicators released Thursday suggest that the U.S. economy is growing at a moderate rate.
Mortgage rates for fixed rate loans were higher, but the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was unchanged from the prior week. Weekly jobless claims were also higher.
The National Association of REALTORS released its Existing Home Sales report for July and reported existing home sales came in at 5.39 million on an annualized basis.
This reading surpassed expectations of 5.21 existing homes sold as well as June’s reading of 5.06 million existing homes sold on an annualized basis.
FOMC Minutes Released, Mortgage Rates Rise
The minutes for the July 31 FOMC meeting were released, and emphasized the likely “tapering” of the Fed’s quantitative easing program possibly as early as September, though no dates have been set. Many of the FOMC members support reducing the $85 billion in monthly securities purchases made by the Fed; fewer members supported tapering the asset purchases sooner than planned.
Previous announcements by the Fed regarding its plan to reduce QE have created erratic responses in financial markets, but the release of the meeting minutes seemed to cause a sharp rise in mortgage rates.
Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved from the prior week’s average rate of 4.40 percent to 4.58 percent; average discount points moved up from 0.70 to 0.80 percent. Average rates for a 15 year fixed-rate mortgage also rose from 3.44 percent to 3.60 percent with average discount points moving from 0.60 to 0.70 percent.
Average rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage were unchanged from the previous week at 3.21 percent with average discount points paid at 0.50 percent.
FHFA reported that home prices for homes with mortgages owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 7.70 percent year-over-year in June, home prices rose slightly from May’s year-over-year- rate of 7.60 percent.
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for July rose by 0.60 to a reading of 96.0; this exceeded expectations for an increase of 0.50 percent. The LEI measures the health of the economy by measuring 10 top economic sectors; eight of 10 factors measured increased; these were led by the spread on interest rates, availability of credit, stock prices and permits issued for building new homes.
New home sales for July were lower than expected at 394,000; Wall Street expected new home sales to come in at 485,000 on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis against the revised number of 455,000 new home sales reported for June. 497,000 homes were initially reported sold in June. Hew home sales gained by 6.80 percent year-over-year in July.
What’s Coming Up
Scheduled economic news for this week includes the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, Pending Home Sales will be out Wednesday. Thursday brings Weekly Jobless Claims, and Friday brings consumer spending and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report.
Aug 20, 2013 | Housing Analysis
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported Thursday that its Housing Market Index rose three points to a reading of 59 for August.
Confidence among builders is likely growing in connection with stronger housing markets and high demand for homes. These conditions are being driven by short supplies of homes for sale in many markets.
Builder confidence in current market conditions rose by three points to a reading of 62, while builder confidence in market conditions within the next six months rose by one point to a reading of 68. Confidence in buyer foot traffic was unchanged from July’s reading of 45.
Readings above 50 indicate that more builders surveyed view housing market conditions as positive rather than negative; there was some concern that the high builders’ confidence reading could trigger the Fed to announce the tapering of its $85 billion monthly purchase of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities.
Housing Starts Driven By Apartment Construction
Housing starts rose in July, but were led by the volatile apartment sector rather than single- family homes.
On Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported 896,000 housing starts on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. This reading fell short of expectations of 915,000 housing starts, but exceeded June’s reading of 846,000 housing starts.
Starts for residential buildings with five or more units rose by 20.90 percent year-over-year while construction of one of one-to-four family residential buildings fell by 2.20 percent. Demand for rental properties and a shortage of available single family homes was seen by economists as contributing to increasing multi-family housing construction.
Analysts said that some home builders may be holding back on single-family home construction due to increasing materials and labor costs, but this doesn’t reflect the record level of builder confidence reported in the NAHB Housing Market Index.
Building homes at less than optimum capacity isn’t good news for the shortage of available single-family homes. Rising mortgage rates are also a concern for home builders, as fewer borrowers may be able to qualify for mortgage loans needed for financing home purchases.
Building permits numbers were also released on Friday, and presented a more positive picture than housing starts. July’s reading for building permits issued rose by 2.70 percent in July to an annual reading of 943,000 permits against expectations of 953,000 permits issued and exceeded June’s reading of 918,000.
Building permits issued provide an indication of future housing starts.
Aug 19, 2013 | Housing Analysis
Last week wasn’t kind to stock market investors, but weekly jobless claims fell to an unexpected low of 320,000 new jobless claims filed, the lowest level in nearly six years.
Here is a review of the major events of the week.
Monday: The federal budget for July shows an increase in its deficit to -$98 billion, a deficit increase of $28 billion over June’s figure of -$70 billion. The good news is that the deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year is $38 billion less than during the same period of the prior fiscal year.
Thursday: Thursday was a busy day for economic news. The weekly jobless claims report came in lower than expected with 320,000 new jobless claims filed. This was lower than the expected.
While this is a strong sign for the economy that would typically boost stock prices, the markets fell. Analysts cite a good news/bad news scenario in describing what happened. The good news was that jobless claims fell to a new low, but the bad news is that investors feared that this may give the Fed a signal to begin tapering its quantitative easing (QE) program.
The Fed is expected to begin tapering its monthly purchases of $85 billion in treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities as early as next month. The QE purchases are intended to help hold down long term interest rates including mortgage rates.
The fall in stock prices on Thursday and Friday suggested that fear of the Fed ending QE is more compelling than the lowest number of new jobless claims since October 2007.
Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage remained unchanged at 4.40 percent with 0.7 percent in discount points. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage ticked upward by one basis point from 3.43 to 3.44 percent.
Discount points fell from 0.70 percent the prior week to 0.60 percent last week.
The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) rose from 3.19 to 3.23 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent. The 5/1 ARM provides an alternative to higher fixed rates for borrowers seeking lower mortgage rates and payments.
Friday: Included Housing Starts for July, which came in at 896,000 as compared to expectations of 915, 00 0 and June’s figure of 846,000 housing starts. Building permits issued in July came in at 943,000, and surpassed June’s reading of 918,000 building permits.
Increasing home values, buyer demand and a short supply of available homes were seen as motivating factors for builders to construct more homes.
Looking Ahead
This week’s schedule of economic news is set to include the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index on Tuesday. The FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday along with Existing Home Sales.
Thursday will bring Weekly Jobless Claims, Freddie Mac’s survey of mortgage rates and the FHFA home price index. Friday will finish the week with a New Home Sales report.
Aug 12, 2013 | Housing Analysis
Highlights of economic news from last week, include a survey of senior loan officers from U.S. and foreign banks doing business in the U.S.
They indicated that banks were gradually easing lending standards for business and consumer loans, but viewed lending criteria for home loans as more restrictive than other types of loans.
According to CoreLogic, U.S. home prices increased at their fastest pace since February 2006. Mortgage rates rose incrementally, and the Weekly Jobless Claims report came in lower than the expected 339,000 at 333,000 new jobless claims.
Monday: Bank loan officers surveyed indicated that while mortgage lending requirements have been eased for low risk mortgage loans, it remains challenging for those with less-than-stellar credit to qualify for home loans.
Bankers noted some concern that easing credit standards may signal to the Fed that it’s time to taper the quantitative easing program that’s designed to keep long term interest rates, including mortgage rates, low.
Tuesday: The CoreLogic Home Prices report for June showed that home prices rose 1.90 percent in June, and rose by 11.88 percent year-over-year. 48 states showed rising home prices while only Mississippi and Delaware showed a decline.
Nevada led the list of higher home prices with a 27.00 percent gain year-over-year; Nevada home values were among the hardest-hit in the economic downturn.
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims came in at 333,000, which were higher than last week’s reading of 328,000 new jobless claims. The four-week average is considered a less volatile indicator of unemployment trends.
The four week rolling average for new jobless claims decreased by 6250 to 335,000. This was the lowest reading for the four-week rolling average since November 2007.
Freddie Mac’s weekly report on mortgage rates brought not-so-good news; the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 4.40 percent, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage was unchanged at 3.43 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage rose by one basis point to 3.19 percent.
Discount points for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 15-year fixed rate mortgages were unchanged at 0.7 percent, while average discount points for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped to 0.5 percent.
What’s Coming Up
This week’s economic news includes the federal budget for Monday. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales will be reported on Tuesday; the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI will be out on Wednesday.
Thursday’s news includes weekly jobless claims and Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates update. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI (excluding volatile food and energy sectors) will also be released. The NAHB Home Builders Housing Market Index (HMI) is also due Thursday.
Friday’s scheduled economic news includes Housing Starts, Building Permits and Consumer Sentiment for July.
