Aug 30, 2011 | Housing Analysis
After 3 straight months of gains, the Pending Home Sales Index slipped 1 percent in July. The monthly report is published by the National Association of REALTORS® and measures the number of home under contract to sell nationwide.
The Pending Home Sales Index is closely watched by Wall Street and analysts because it’s a forward-looking housing market indicator. Unlike most housing market data, though, Pending Home Sales forecasts a future housing market event. In this case, the Existing Home Sales report.
In its methodology, the Pending Home Sales Index states that 80% of homes under contract close within 2 months, with most of the remaining home going to closing within Months 3 and 4.
We would expect home sales data to taper into the fall buying season, but this year, they may taper more than normal. This is because, in a separate report, the National Association of REALTORS® said that contract cancellation rates are running high.
As compared to a 4 percent contract cancellation rate in May 2011, June and July both registered 16 percent. This means that fewer homes tallied as part of July’s Pending Home Sales Index will show up as “closed sales” this fall.
Contracts can be canceled for any number of reasons including more stringent mortgage guidelines, appraisals falling short of the purchase price, and changing mortgage loan limits. (more…)
Aug 24, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Sales of newly-built homes slipped in July, falling 1 percent as compared to June. Home buyers closed on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 298,000 units, the lowest reading since February.
The supply of new homes, however, remained flat.
July’s 6.6 months of supply equaled June’s tally and remains near the multi-year low of 6.5 months set in May of this year. The figures suggest a new home market that’s finding its balance.
Builders are building to meet demand, and not much more.
The New Home Sales report may have read differently if not for the Northeast Region which doubled its sales units in July. The gains buoyed the broader data, re-affirming the importance of looking past national data and focusing on what’s local; the national market is not reflective of any given town
Broken down by region, July New Home Sales fared as follows:
- Northeast Region : +100.0% from June 2011
- Midwest Region : +2.4% from June 2011
- South Region : -7.4% from June 2011
- West Region : -5.9% from June 2011
However, as with most months, it’s important that we recognize the New Home Sales data’s margin of error. (more…)
Aug 23, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Home resales slipped in July.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales nationwide fell to 4.67 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis last month. It’s the fourth straight month below the 5 million mark, and the report’s lowest reading since November 2010.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied or owned.
In addition, the Existing Home Sales report showed home supplies rising nationwide. At the current pace of sales, in other words, the complete, national “For Sale” inventory would be exhausted in 9.4 months. This, too, is the worst reading since November 2010.
On a units basis, however, the number of homes for sale actually fell in July. As compared to June, home resale inventory dropped 65,000 units to 3.65 million.
From these figures, we can infer that, despite low mortgage rates and lagging home values, buyer activity is slowing in Massachusetts and nationwide. This may be seasonal, or it may be a long-term trend.
Either way, there’s opportunity for today’s home buyers. (more…)
Aug 17, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Single-Family Housing Starts fell to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 425,000 units in July, according to the Census Bureau.
A “Housing Start” is defined as a home on which construction has started and ground has broken.
Furthermore, Single-Family Housing Starts were revised lower for both May and June of this year, by 6,000 units and 2,000 units, respectively.
The data may be worthless, however.
Like in most months, the government’s official report states that the Housing Starts numbers have a margin of error exceeding their actual measurement. Mathematically, this renders the data statistically irrelevant.
- July Published Results : +4.9%
- July Margin of Error : ±8.9%
In other words, July Housing Starts made have increased by as much as 13.8%, or they may have dropped up to (more…)
Aug 12, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Foreclosure activity continues to slow.
According to RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure-tracking firm, the number of foreclosure filings nationwide fell 35 percent as compared to July 2010, a statistic suggesting that the housing market continues to improve.
“Foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term encompassing default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions.
Filings fell to a 44-month low in July 2011.
For all the improvement, though, activity remains concentrated in just a few states. More than half of all bank repossessions last month occurred in just a handful of states.
In July, 6 states accounted for 52% of activity. (more…)
Jul 29, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Buyers are writing contracts at a furious pace nationwide.
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Pending Home Sales Index rose 2 percent last month to reach its highest level since March.
A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.
The forward-looking Pending Home Sales Index is up 11 percent from its low of the year, according to the National Association of REALTORS®, and well ahead of its rolling 6-month average.
Unfortunately, national data isn’t always helpful for buyers and sellers in Leominster and nationwide. To help make data more relevant, therefore, the official Pending Home Sales Index report includes a region-by-region breakdown.
Between May and June 2011, results were mixed:
- Northeast Region: -0.4%
- Midwest Region : -3.7%
- South Region : +4.4%
- West Region : +6.4%
However, even the value of regional data may be dubious. (more…)
