Feb 14, 2022 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation and the University of Michigan’s preliminary February reporting on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.
Inflation Rises as Fed Considers Raising Key Rate
The government’s Consumer Price Index for January reported that month-to-month inflation rose by 0.60 percent as compared to an expected increase of 0.40 percent which was based on December’s month-to-month increase of 0.50 percent. Year-over-year inflation rose to a rate of 7.50 percent, which was the highest inflation rate in 40 years. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, also rose 0.60 percent in January from December’s reading of 5.50 percent.
Analysts said that the Federal Reserve will likely raise its key federal funds rate range to help slow inflation, but drastic dips in the inflation rate aren’t expected. While the Fed predicted inflation to ease in a statement made last December, inflation has only increased. The Fed’s strategy of raising interest rates would ease high consumer demand and help slow rapidly rising prices for housing, goods, and services.
Mortgage Rates Rise, Jobless Claims and Consumer Sentiment Fall
Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 14 basis points to 3.69 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 16 basis points to 2.93 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 2.80 percent and nine basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.
223,000 new jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 239,000 first-time claims filed. No information for continuing jobless claims was released last week.
The University of Michigan reported a preliminary index reading of 61.7 for January’s Consumer Sentiment Index. This was the lowest consumer sentiment reading in ten years and was attributed to consumer concerns over rising inflation.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions, Commerce Department readings on building permits issued, and housing starts. Data on sales of pre-owned homes will be released along with weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims.
Feb 7, 2022 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and labor-related reports on jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.
Residential Con
The Commerce Department reported overall construction spending rose by 1.30 percent in January, which was the largest increase since April of last year. Private residential construction spending fell by 0.30 percent in January; this was the sixth consecutive month for declining private-sector residential construction spending.
Construction Spending Falls in January
Analysts cited costly building materials, fewer available options for prospective buyers, and higher mortgage rates as factors contributing to less construction spending. Homebuying traditionally slows during the winter months.
Mortgage Rates Little Changed, Jobless Claims Fall
Freddie Mac reported little change in average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 3.55 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.77 percent and three basis points lower than for the previous week. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose one basis point to 2.71 percent on average. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
Initial jobless claims were lower last week with 238,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 261,000 first-time claims filed. Analysts predicted 245,000 new claims would be filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 1.63 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.67 million continuing jobless claims filed.
Labor Reports Show Slower Jobs Growth, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up
ADP Payrolls reported 301,000 fewer private-sector jobs open in January as compared to 776,000 private-sector jobs available in December. Analysts expected 200,000 private-sector job openings in January. The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report showed 467,000 jobs added in January as compared to the expected reading of 150,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 510,000 public and private-sector jobs added. Hiring in December was higher than expected as analysts predicted less hiring due to the ongoing spread of the omicron variant of COVID-19.
The national unemployment rate rose to 4.00 percent in January as compared to December’s reading of 3.90 percent. Analysts predicted national unemployment to hold steady at 3.90 percent.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims.
Jan 28, 2022 | Financial Reports
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported slower home price growth in November. Rising mortgage rates and high home prices sidelined first-time and moderate-income buyers and investors who fear buying at the peak of today’s housing markets only to face lower home values when home prices cool off.
November’s National Home Price Index reported a year-over-year gain of 18.80 percent in home prices year-over-year. The 20-City Home Price Index, which, real estate pros frequently use to estimate home pricing trends, reported that U.S. home prices rose 18.30 percent year-over-year in November.
20-City Home Price Index: Arizona and Florida Post Top Gains in Home Prices
Home prices in the Phoenix, Arizona metro area rose by 32.2 percent year-over-year in November. Tampa, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 29.0 percent. Miami, Florida held third place in the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 26.6 percent.
The covid pandemic influenced home buying trends in multiple ways. Closures of workspaces, loss of childcare options and local restrictions and regulations designed to prevent the spread of covid caused many people to seek alternatives to commuting to work. Working from home allowed homeowners to transition from daily commutes to work to buying bigger homes to accommodate changing family and work needs.
Covid influenced many home buyers to look for homes in less-congested metro areas; Metro areas in the mountain west have grown as buyers from congested coastal metro areas bought homes in less populated areas in states including Arizona, Colorado, and Idaho.
Rising Home Prices and Mortgage Rates Impact Affordability
Rapidly rising home prices, buyer competition, and higher mortgage rates continued to challenge first-time and moderate-income home buyers, but demand for homes remains high. Analysts expect high demand and short supplies of available homes will continue to dominate housing markets in 2022.
The Naples, Florida metro area held first place in a survey of emerging housing markets; the North-Port, Sarasota, and Bradenton, Florida metro areas held second place in emerging markets. International buyers and vacation rentals are driving home sales as covid-related travel restrictions are lifted.
Metro areas including Raleigh, North Carolina, and Fort Wayne, Indiana held their own among popular vacation destinations. Foreign-born home buyers are returning to U.S. housing markets from covid-related travel restrictions. Danielle Hale, the chief economist at Realtor.com, said: “The idea that people are traveling more and that borders are a little bit more open than they were gives international buyers the confidence to get [into the housing market.] We do see an increase in international shopping within a lot of these areas.”
Emerging real estate markets and recovery of formerly stable housing markets indicate that the worst effects of the pandemic are easing but the quick spread of covid’s omicron variant suggests that complete economic recovery from the pandemic is a gradual process.
Jan 24, 2022 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reports included readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets, Commerce Department data on building permits issued, and housing starts. The National Association of Realtors® reported on sales of previously-owned homes. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.
National Association of Home Builders: Builder Confidence Falls One Point
Supply chain issues and rising inflation concerned builders surveyed about housing market conditions in January. The National Association of Home Builders reported an index reading of 83 as compared to December’s reading of 84. While any reading over 50 is considered positive, January’s dip in builder confidence was the first decline in four months.
Component readings for the Housing Market Index also showed a slowing trend. Builder confidence in current housing market conditions was unchanged at an index reading of 90; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months fell two points to 83. Builder confidence in buyer traffic in new single-family housing developments also fell by two points to 69.
NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said, “NAHB analysis indicates the aggregate cost of residential construction materials has increased almost 19 percent since December 2020.” Softwood lumber prices rose approximately 85 percent in the last three months according to trade publication Random Lengths. Analysts said that tariffs and labor shortages have also added to the cost of residential home building.
Commerce Department readings on building permits issued and housing starts were higher in December/ 1.87 million building permits were issued on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to November’s reading of 1.72 million building permits issued. Housing starts also increased with 1.70 million starts reported as compared to November’s reading of 1.68 million housing starts. Analysts expected a seasonally-adjusted annual reading of 1.65 million single-family starts.
The National Association of Realtors® reported December’space of 6.18 million previously-owned homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts expected 6.48 million sales, which matched November’s reading.
Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise
Mortgage rates rose last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 3.56 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was 17 basis points higher at 2.79 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.60 percent and 31 basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Basis points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent. Rising mortgage rates, high demand for homes, and buyer competition continued to present challenges for first-time and moderate-income home buyers.
286,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week and exceeded expectations of 225,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 231,000 first-time claims filed. 1.64 million continuing claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.55 million ongoing claims filed.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee statement, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Readings on pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment are also expected Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.
Jan 18, 2022 | Financial Reports
Last week’s scheduled economic reporting focused on inflation with monthly and year-over-year readings on overall and core inflation. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was confirmed for a second term as Federal Reserve chair. The University of Michigan released its monthly survey on consumer sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.
Inflation Rises in December; Nears Fastest Growth Pace in 40 Years
Year-over-year inflation rose to a pace of seven percent in December and approached its fastest growth rate in 40 years according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analysts expected year-over-year inflationary growth of seven percent as compared to November’s pace of 6.80 percent. Month-to-month inflation slowed to
0.50 percent as compared to November’s month-to-month growth rate of 0.80 percent.
Housing costs, food, and automotive sectors drove inflation in December. Shortages of computer chips used in vehicles slowed production and increased demand for vehicles. New car prices rose by one percent and used-car prices rose by 3.50 percent month-to-month.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose by 5.50 percent year-over-year in December and surpassed the expected reading of 5.40 percent that was based on November’s core inflation rate of 4.90 percent. Rents rose by 0.40 percent for the third consecutive month. Food prices rose by 0.50 percent month-to-month and costs for clothing and furniture also rose.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was confirmed for a second term and addressed the Fed’s plans for slowing inflation. Mr. Powell said, “The economy no longer needs or wants the very highly accommodative policies we’ve had in place to deal with the pandemic and its aftermath.”
Energy prices fell by 0.40 percent in December and decreased for the first time since April.
Mortgage Rates Rise. Jobless Claims Mixed
Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 23 basis points to 3.4
Initial jobless claims rose last week with 230,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 207,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected first-time claims to decrease to 200,000 initial claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims fell to 1.60 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.75 million ongoing jobless claims filed.5 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 19 basis points and averaged 2.62 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose 16 basis points to 2.57 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for January reported lower consumer enthusiasm for current economic conditions with an index reading of 68.8 as compared to the expected reading of 70.0 and December’s index reading of 70.6.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on housing markets and sales of previously-owned homes. Readings on building permits issued and housing starts will be released along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.
Jan 10, 2022 | Financial Reports
Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending and labor sector readings on jobs and unemployment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.
Construction Spending Unchanged, Falls Short of Expectations
The Commerce Department reported that construction spending rose by 0.4 percent in November to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of $1.63 trillion and 9.30 percent year-over-year, Residential construction spending drove spending higher; month-to-month spending rose by 0.90 percent in November and was 16 percent higher year-over-year. Analysts expected overall construction spending to rise by 0.70 percent from October to November.
High demand for homes continued to drive residential construction spending, but spending on office construction fell by 32.10 percent year-over-year. Work-from-home options increased as employers and workers faced covid-related challenges.
Mortgage Rates Rise; Jobs Data Mixed
Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 11basis points to 3.22 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages was 10 basis points higher at 2.43 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.41 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.50 percent.
First-time jobless claims rose by 207,000 claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 200,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected 195,000 new claim filings. Continuing jobless claims rose last week with 1.75 million ongoing claims filed; 1.72 million continuing jobless claims were filed in the prior week.
The government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report for December reported 199,000 public and private sector jobs added, which fell far short of the expected reading of 422,000 jobs added and November’s reading of 249,000 jobs added. Analysts said that the spread of the omicron variant of the covid virus slowed job searches and hiring.
ADP reported 807,000 private-sector jobs added in December, which surpassed expectations of 375,000 jobs added and November’s reading of 505,000 private-sector jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to 3.90 percent as compared to the prior month’s reading of 4.20 percent. The unemployment rate is based on the number of unemployed workers actively seeking work and does not include workers who stopped looking for work.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation and retail sales and weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims.
