Feb 24, 2012 | Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve has released the minutes from its 2-day meeting January 24-25, 2012.
The Fed Minutes is a summary of the conversations and debates that shape our nation’s monetary policy. It receives less attention than the Fed’s more well-known, post-meeting press release, but the Fed Minutes is every bit as important.
To rate shoppers in Worcester County area , for example, the Fed Minutes can provide clues about whether mortgage rates will generally rise or fall in the coming months.
The most recent Fed Minutes reveals a central bank divided on the future of the U.S. economy. The minutes show some Fed members in favor of new, immediate market stimulus. It shows others in favor of terminating the stimulus that’s already in place.
The Fed’s debate centered on the topic of inflation, and the pressures that a prolonged, near-zero Fed Funds Rate can place on the economy. Ultimately, the Fed did nothing, neither adding new stimulus nor removing that which is already in place.
It did, however, communicate a plan to keep the benchmark Fed Funds Rate rate “exceptionally low” through late-2014, at least.
The Fed Minutes included the following notes, too :
- On employment : Unemployment rates will “decline only gradually” in 2012
- On housing : The market is “held down” by the “large overhang” of distressed homes
- On inflation : Consumer prices have remained “flat”
Furthermore, the Fed expressed optimism regarding European financial markets, noting that market sentiment “appeared to brighten a bit”. Nonetheless, “spillovers” remain possible and the threat continues to weigh on markets.
Mortgage rates are slightly worse since the Fed Minutes were released.
The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled meeting is March 13, 2012 — its second of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
Feb 23, 2012 | Housing Analysis
January’s home resales moved to a 20-month high — additional evidence that the nation’s housing recovery is underway.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, the January 2012 Existing Home Sales showed 4.57 million units sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis — a 4 percent increase as compared to December’s revised figures.
An “existing home” is one that’s been previously occupied and cannot be categorized as new construction.
Beyond the headline numbers, though, there was plenty about which for today’s Worcester County area home sellers to get excited. Demand for homes remains strong, foreshadowing higher home prices through 2012.
First, the national housing stock is at a 5-year low.
In January, the number of homes for sale nationwide slipped to 2.31 million, the smallest home inventory since February 2007, and a 21% decrease from just one year ago.
Falling home supply amid constant home demand leads home prices higher. At the current pace of sales, today’s complete home inventory would “sell out” in 6.1 months.
Analysts say that a 6-month supply is a market in balance. (more…)
Feb 22, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Foreclosure filings fell 19 percent last month versus one year ago, says foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac. It’s yet one more signal that the U.S. housing market may have already climbed off its bottom.
According to RealtyTrac, a “foreclosure filing” is any one of the following foreclosure-related events : (1) A default notice on a home; (2) A scheduled auction for a home; or, (3) A bank repossession of a home.
In looking at the January 2012 figures :
- Default Notices were down 22% from January 2011
- Scheduled Auctions were down 19% from January 2011
- Bank Repossessions were down 15% from January 2011
On a monthly basis, however, (more…)
Feb 17, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The housing market has carried forward its year-end momentum.
According to the Census Bureau, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, January’s Single-Family Housing Starts crossed the half-million unit marker for the second straight month.
This hasn’t happened in close to 2 years and is the latest in a series of strong data that suggests the beleaguered housing market has turned a corner — both nationally and locally in Worcester County area.
Although single-family starts slipped 1 percent from December, January’s annualized 508,000 figure represents a 16% spike from January 2011 and is the second-highest reading since April 2010 — the last month of 2010’s federal home buyer tax credit program.
A “housing start” is a new home on which construction has started.
The strength of January’s Housing Starts data surprised Wall Street analysts and is partially responsible for Thursday’s unexpected mortgage rate spike.
In hindsight, though, we should have seen this coming.
Earlier in the week, the National Association of Homebuilders announced that homebuilder confidence (more…)
Feb 16, 2012 | Housing Analysis
New construction buyers in Worcester County area , look out. The nation’s home builders are predicting a strong 2012 for new home sales. It may mean higher home prices as the spring buying season approaches.
For the sixth straight month, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that homebuilder confidence is on the rise. The Housing Market Index climbed four points to 29 in February, the index’s highest reading since May 2007.
The Housing Market Index is now up 8 points in 8 weeks. The last time that happened was June 2003, a month during which the U.S. economy was regaining its footing, much like this month. It’s noteworthy that June 2003 marked the start of a 4-year bull run in the stock market that took equities up 54%.
The NAHB’s Housing Market Index itself is actually a composite reading. It’s the end-result of three separate surveys sent to home builders monthly.
The association’s questions are basic :
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
In February, builders reported marked improvement across all three areas. Builders report that current home sales climbed 5 points; that sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 5 points; and that buyer foot traffic climbed 1 point.
Most notable of all of the statistics, though, is that the nation’s home builders report that there are now twice as many buyers setting foot inside model units as compared to just 6 months ago.
This data is supported by the (more…)
