Turmoil in Libya and Middle East countries may send oil prices up and affect mortgage rates.
If investors fear that rising oil prices will derail an emerging recovery, they will remove their money from stocks and put it into safer bonds, especially government Treasuries. That will help lower mortgage rates. More bond purchases will push bond prices up and their yields, or their interest rates paid to bond owners, down. Mortgage rates would also decline, since they cannot be lower than government bond rates.
That’s exactly what’s been happening this week. Oil prices went over $100 a barrel, its highest price since September 2008. Mortgage rates have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declining from 5 percent to 4.84 percent last week.