Aug 11, 2011 | The Economy
More Americans are getting back to work.
The latest Non-Farm Payrolls survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that 117,000 net new jobs were created in July, thumping analyst estimates and surprising Wall Street investors.
In addition, May and June’s originally-reported figures were both revised higher:
- May 2011 was revised higher by 28,000 jobs
- June 2011 was revised higher by 28,000 jobs
The national Unemployment Rate slipped to 9.1 percent.
The jobs report’s strong readings would typically be a boon to stock market and a threat to mortgage rates. This is because more employed Americans means more disposable income spent on products and services; and more taxes paid to governments at the federal, state and local level.
This combination fuels consumer spending and supports new job growth, a self-reinforcing cycle that spurs economic growth and often to draw investors into equities.
This month, however, the market reaction has been decidedly different. (more…)
Aug 9, 2011 | Mortgage Rates, News, The Economy
Mortgage rates continue drifting downward, despite — or because of — a ratings downgrade on long-term U.S. government debt. Standard & Poors issued a single-notch downgrade after Friday’s market close, from AAA to AA+.
Of the roughly $9.4 billion in publicly-held U.S. debt, 72 percent is long-term (i.e. with duration of 2 years or longer).
U.S. short-term debt was not downgraded.
When an entity — government, business, or other — is cited for a credit downgrade, it means that the risk of lending money to that entity has increased. In theory, higher risk should lead to higher borrowing costs and higher consumer rates.
Except in today’s U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond markets, the opposite is occurring. U.S.-backed bonds are in demand, leading rates lower. It’s an unexpected response to the S&P downgrade. (more…)
Aug 3, 2011 | The Economy
At 8:30 AM ET Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July 2011 Non-Farm Payrolls report. Mark it in your calendar. If you’ve been watching mortgage rates fall to new all-time lows this week and fear a mortgage rate reversal, Friday could be the day.
The monthly Non-Farm Payrolls data can swing a big stick in mortgage markets.
More commonly called “the jobs report“, Non-Farm Payrolls details the U.S. workforce, providing sector-by-sector analysis of workforce, as well as the national Unemployment Rate.
The jobs report affects mortgage rates because of how important jobs are to the U.S. economy.
When there are more working Americans:
- There’s more consumer spending, a boost to businesses
- There’s more tax collection, a boost to governments
- There’s more personal savings, a boost to households
In July, analysts anticipate 85,000 new jobs created. This would be a 4-fold increase from June’s 18,000 figure.
The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 9.2%.
For rate shoppers and home buyers in Massachusetts , these Wall Street expectations can be as important as the actual data itself. Right now, traders placing bets, expecting 85,000 new jobs in July. If the final tally is more than 85,000, traders will load up on equities at the expense of bonds. This is because job growth is good for the economy.
When bonds sell off, rates rise.
Conversely, if jobs growth is less than 85,000, mortgage rates should drop.
Mortgage rates are near all-time lows this morning. By Friday, they could rise. The safe move is to lock your rate today. Rates may fall when the jobs report is released, but there’s much more room for rates to rise.
Aug 2, 2011 | The Economy
The United States is projected to reach its legal $14.294 trillion debt limit today. The limit was set by Congress February 12, 2010. The U.S. Treasury may not issue new debt beyond the debt ceiling.
Since April 2011, Congress has debated ways to remain below the nation’s $14.292 trillion borrowing limit. The debate commenced with the passage of the 2011 U.S. Federal Budget which featured a $1.645 trillion deficit.
This multi-trillion dollar deficit ensured that the debt ceiling would be touched at some point during the current fiscal year.
That date was May 16. It took an intervention from the Treasury Secretary to temporarily extend the limits; an “extraordinary measure” meant to keep the U.S. government from defaulting on its debt.
With additional room to borrow, then, the U.S. Treasury’s new debt ceiling date was moved to August 2. Congress has been debating the federal budget since mid-May with the dual-goal of (1) Remaining below the federal debt limit, and (2) Creating a budgetary surplus for the future.
An agreement is expected today. (more…)
