Sep 1, 2011 | Buying Real Estate, Interesting Stuff, Mortgage Rates, The Economy
If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate, today may be a good day to lock one down. That’s because Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its Non-Farm Payrolls report for August 2011.
The “jobs report” tends to have a big influence on mortgage bonds and mortgage rates in Leominster.
The jobs report is a monthly issuance, providing sector-by-sector analysis of the U.S. workforce. It also report the national Unemployment Rate.
Wall Street expects the August Non-Farm Payrolls data to show 75,000 jobs created in August, down from 117,000 in July; and it expects that the Unemployment Rate will remain unchanged at 9.1%.
The jobs report’s connection to mortgage markets is straight-forward — as jobs go, so goes the economy. This is because when the number of working Americans rises :
- Consumer spending gets a boost
- Government tax collection gets a boost
- Household savings gets a boost
These are each good turns in a recovering economy. (more…)
Aug 31, 2011 | Federal Reserve, Interesting Stuff, Legislation, Mortgage Rates
The Fed publishes meeting minutes 8 times annually — three weeks after each scheduled Federal Open Market Committee get-together. The Fed Minutes summarizes the FOMC meeting.
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its August 9, 2011 Federal Open Market Committee meeting Tuesday.
The Fed Minutes contained no surprises and, as a result, mortgage rates across Massachusetts and nationwide have idled.
Although it gets less press attention, the Fed Minutes is every bit as important as the more highly-publicized, post-meeting statement from the FOMC. With its detailed record of conversation, the Fed Minutes highlights the discussions and debates that shape our nation’s monetary policy.
For example, here is some of what was said at the Fed’s August 2011 meeting :
- On growth : Economic growth had been slower than the committee expected
- On housing : The market “remains depressed”. Underwriting standards are “tight”.
- On rates : The Fed Funds Rate will remain low until mid-2013
In addition, the Fed talked about whether a third round of asset purchases should be announced. Ultimately, that plan was rejected by consensus.
The FOMC’s next meeting is a 2-day meeting, scheduled for September 20-21. The meeting was originally scheduled for just one day, but Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke chose to extend it to two. Wall Street believes that the extension was made so Fed members could discuss new forms of economic stimulus. (more…)
Aug 26, 2011 | Mortgage Rates
Low mortgage rates are terrific — if you can get them.
One week after posting its lowest mortgage rate in 50 years, Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rose by an average of 7 basis points nationwide this week to 4.22%. To get the rate, you’ll pay an average of 0.7 “points”.
This week’s rise in the 30-year fixed rate mortgage pulled rates off their all-time lows so either you locked last week’s rock-bottom rates, or you missed it.
Mortgage rates are rising.
As a refinancing homeowner or home buyer in Worcester , rising mortgage rates are something to watch. This is because, as mortgage rates rise, so do the long-term interest costs of giving a mortgage, increasing your homeownership costs. (more…)
Aug 19, 2011 | Buying Real Estate, Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Rates, News
Last week, at its 5th scheduled meeting of the year, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its target range near zero percent.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008 and, in its official statement, the FOMC pledged to leave the Fed Funds Rate untouched for at least another 2 years.
This doesn’t mean mortgage rates will be untouched for 2 years, though.
Mortgage rates and the Fed Funds Rate are two different interest rates; completely disconnected. If mortgage rates and the Fed Funds Rate moved in tandem, the chart at right would be a straight line.
Instead, it’s jagged.
To make the point more strongly, let’s use real-life examples from the past decade.
- June 2004, 529 basis points separated the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate
- June 2006, 168 basis points separated the Fed Funds Rate and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate
Today, the separation between the two benchmark rates is 407 basis points.
1 basis point is equal to 0.01%. (more…)
Aug 16, 2011 | Buying Real Estate, Mortgage Rates
In the second quarter of 2011, fixed-rate loans accounted for about 95 percent of refinance loans, based on the Freddie Mac Quarterly Product Transition Report. Refinancing borrowers preferred fixed-rate loans, regardless of whether their original loan was an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) or a fixed-rate, the report concluded.
An increasing share of refinancing borrowers chose to shorten their loan terms during the second quarter, according to Freddie Mac. Of borrowers who paid off a 30-year fixed-rate loan, 37 percent chose a 15- or 20-year loan, the highest such share since the third quarter of 2003. (more…)
Aug 9, 2011 | Mortgage Rates, News, The Economy
Mortgage rates continue drifting downward, despite — or because of — a ratings downgrade on long-term U.S. government debt. Standard & Poors issued a single-notch downgrade after Friday’s market close, from AAA to AA+.
Of the roughly $9.4 billion in publicly-held U.S. debt, 72 percent is long-term (i.e. with duration of 2 years or longer).
U.S. short-term debt was not downgraded.
When an entity — government, business, or other — is cited for a credit downgrade, it means that the risk of lending money to that entity has increased. In theory, higher risk should lead to higher borrowing costs and higher consumer rates.
Except in today’s U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond markets, the opposite is occurring. U.S.-backed bonds are in demand, leading rates lower. It’s an unexpected response to the S&P downgrade. (more…)
