Sep 27, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Are home resales rebounding?
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August from the month prior, and 19 percent as compared to August of last year.
“Existing homes” are homes that are previously owned; ones that cannot be considered new construction.
A total of 5.0 million existing homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month home resale average, a statistic partially powered by “distressed sales”. Distressed homes — homes in various stages of foreclosures or sold via short sale — accounted for 31 percent of all home resales in August. (more…)
Sep 23, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Single-Family Housing Starts fell for the second consecutive month, dropping to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 417,000 units in August 2011.
A “Housing Start” is defined as a home on which ground has broken.
We shouldn’t put too much faith in the findings, however. Although housing starts were lower last month, as noted by the Census Bureau, the margin of error in the August Housing Starts report exceeded the actual result.
From the official report:
- August’s Published Results : -1.4% from July
- August’s Margin of Error : ±10.3% from July
Therefore, August’s Housing Starts may have actually increased by up to +8.9% from July, or it may have dropped as much as -11.7%. We won’t know for sure until several months from now, after the Census Bureau has gathered more housing data.
One thing is certain, though — the long-term trend in Housing Starts is “flat”. There has been little change in new home construction since last summer.
The same can’t be said for Building Permits.
Considered a pre-cursor to Housing Starts, Single Family Building Permits climbed 2.5 percent with a minuscule Margin of Error of ±0.9 percent.
As is common in real estate, results varied by region: (more…)
Sep 20, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.
With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index’s 12-month average.
The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It’s the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder’s business.
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September’s composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.
The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006. (more…)
Sep 15, 2011 | Housing Analysis
On an annual basis, foreclosure filings fell last month. As compared to August 2010, last month’s foreclosure filings dropped 33 percent. “Foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term, comprising default notices; scheduled auctions; and bank repossessions.
The study was published by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac and this month’s report reveals a slowing rate of foreclosure within each of the Top 10 most foreclosure-heavy states.
All news is not good, however.
On a monthly basis, foreclosure filings spiked, led by a surge in default notices. Default notices made their biggest one-month jump since August 2007 on the way to a 9-month high last month. Default notices are the first step in the foreclosure process so this jump may foreshadow a large number of bank repossessions as foreclosures “make their way through the process”.
It’s also noteworthy that just 6 states housed half of the nation’s bank repossessions last month.
- California : 18 percent of bank repossessions
- Florida : 8 percent of bank repossessions
- Georgia : 7 percent of bank repossessions
- Michigan : 6 percent of bank repossessions
- Texas : 6 percent of bank repossessions
- Arizona : 6 percent of bank repossessions
As a home buyer in Fitchburg , foreclosures can save you money. The National Association of REALTORS® reports that distressed homes sell with typical discounts of 20 percent versus comparable, non-distressed homes. However, buying a home from a bank is a different process from buying a home from a “person”. Contract negotiations are different and it can take months to finally close on a foreclosed home.
If you’re buying a foreclosed, therefore, enlist the help of a professional real estate agent. Real estate agents can help you navigate the sometimes-complicated world of foreclosures, and help you come out ahead.
Sep 9, 2011 | Buying Real Estate, Housing Analysis, Interesting Stuff, Selling Real Estate, The Economy
Home affordability slipped slightly last quarter, dragged down by rising mortgage rates and recovering home prices in Massachusetts and nationwide.
The National Association of Home Builders reports a Q2 2011 Home Opportunity Index reading of 72.6. This means that nearly 3 of 4 homes sold last quarter were affordable to households earning the national median income of $64,200.
Q2 2011 marks the 10th straight quarter — dating back to 2009 — in which the index surpassed 70.
Prior to 2009, the index had never crossed 70 even one time.
However, we must remember that the Home Affordability Index is a national survey. From region-to-region, and town-to-town, home affordability varied.
In the Midwest, for example, affordability was highest. 14 of the 15 most affordable markets nationwide were spread throughout Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Indiana. Only Syracuse (#9) cracked the list from other regions.
The top 5 most affordable cities in Q2 2011 were: (more…)
Sep 2, 2011 | Buying Real Estate, Housing Analysis, Mortgage Lenders, Mortgage Rates, News
Has housing turned the corner for good?
The June 2011 Case-Shiller Index reading posted strong numbers across the board, with each of the index’s 20 tracked markets showing home price improvement from May.
Some markets — Chicago and Minneapolis — rose as much as 3.2 percent.
The rise in values is nothing about which to get overly excited, however. The Case-Shiller Index is just re-reporting what multiple data sets have already shown about the summer housing market; that it was stronger than the spring market, and that a recovery is underway, but occurring locally, at different rates.
For example, the June 2011 Case-Shiller Index shows the following :
- Denver, Dallas, Washington D.C., and the “California Cities” bottomed in 2009. Each has shown steady improvement since.
- None of the Case-Shiller cities showed negative growth between May and June 2011.
- 12 of Case-Shiller’s tracked cities have improved over 3 consecutive months.
In isolation, these statistics appear promising, but it’s important to remember that the Case-Shiller Index is a backward-looking data set, focusing on just a portion of the national housing economy. (more…)
