Jun 20, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Sometimes, the housing data headlines tell just half the tale. The stories on May’s Housing Starts figures are proving to be a terrific illustration.
Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its monthly Housing Starts report. A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.
The report is separated by property type with a separate count for single family homes such as detached residences and town homes; for multiple-unit homes such as 2-unit, 3-unit and 4-unit structures; and, for buildings of 5-units of more such as new condominiums.
In May, Housing Starts fell 4.8 percent nationwide. This runs contrary to recent housing market statistics and home builder confidence data which both have suggested a recovery. (more…)
Jun 19, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Home builders anticipate growth in the market for newly-built, single-family homes.
For June 2012, the National Association of Homebuilders reports its monthly Housing Market Index at 29 — an increase of more than 100% from one year ago and the highest HMI value since May 2007.
When the Housing Market Index reads 50 or better, it’s meant to indicate favorable conditions for builders in the single-family, new-construction market. Readings below (more…)
Jun 15, 2012 | Housing Analysis
According to foreclosure data firm RealtyTrac, the number of foreclosure filings nationwide rose 9 percent in May as compared to April 2012. Filing topped 200,000 units for the first time in 3 months.
The term “foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term comprising default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions. (more…)
Jun 14, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The number of U.S. housing markets showing “measurable and sustained growth” slipped by 20 in June, according to the National Association of Homebuilders.
The Improving Market Index is meant to identify housing markets in which economic growth is occurring as a whole — (more…)
Jun 8, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Standard & Poors released its March 2012 Case-Shiller Index last week. The index is meant to measure changes in home prices from month-to-month, and from year-to-year, in select U.S. cities.
According to the report, home values rose in 12 of the Case-Shiller Index’s 20 tracked markets, and one market remained unchanged.
Of the Case-Shiller markets, Phoenix, Arizona posted the largest one-year gain, climbing 6.1 percent. Atlanta, Georgia posted the largest one-year loss. Values falling more than seventeen percent there year-over-year.
Overall, the Case-Shiller Index was relatively unchanged in March as compared to the month prior, but down nearly 3 percent on an annual basis. Nationwide, says Standard & Poor’s, home values are back to the levels of late-2002.
Don’t be overly concerned, however. Though widely-cited, the Case-Shiller Index is a flawed and misleading metric. It’s methodology almost guarantees it.
The first flaw in the Case-Shiller Index is its limited geography. Despite there being more than 3,100 municipalities nationwide, the Case-Shiller Index tracks just 20 of them. They’re not the 20 largest ones, either. Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Jose are specifically excluded from the Case-Shiller Index and each is among the Top 10 Most Populous Cities in the United States.
Minneapolis (#48) and Tampa (#55), by contrast, are included.
The Case-Shiller Index’s second flaw is that only tracks the sales of single-family, detached homes. Sales of condominiums and multi-unit homes carry no weight in the index whatsoever — even in cities such as Chicago and New York in which condos can account for a large percentage of the overall real estate market.
And, lastly, when the Case-Shiller Index is published, it’s published on a two-month delay. Buyers and sellers in Massachusetts don’t need housing data from two months ago — they need data from today. The Case-Shiller Index tells us what housing was, in other words. It doesn’t tell us how housing is.
Buyers and sellers need real-time, actionable information. You can’t get that from the flawed Case-Shiller Index. For more accurate, relevant real estate data, talk to your real estate professional instead.
May 31, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The housing market took a breather in April.
After forging past its benchmark value of 100 in March, April’s Pending Home Sales Index dropped back to 95.5, its lowest reading of the year. The data suggests fewer home resales throughout Worcester County area and nationwide in the months ahead.
A “pending home” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed. The Pending Home Sales Index is tracked and published monthly by the National Association of REALTORS®.
As a housing market indicator, the Pending Home Sales Index is fundamentally different from other housing metrics which often make headline news.
Unlike the Existing Home Sales report, for example; or the New Home Sales report, the Pending Home Sales Index is purported to be predictor of future housing market performance. It measures the number of homes (more…)
