Aug 21, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The market for newly-built homes remains strong.
As reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, July featured 502,000 single-family housing starts nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, marking the fourth straight month during which single-family starts posted north of one-half million.
The last time this milestone occurred was in the four months ending April 2010 — the last month of that year’s federal home buyer tax credit.
A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started and the rise in single-family housing starts is yet one more signal to buyers in Worcester County area and nationwide that the housing market has likely put its worst days behind it.
Home builders, it appears, agree with that sentiment.
Last week, the National Association of Homebuilders reported builder confidence to be at a 5-year high. Sales levels have been growing since January and builders expect the next six months to be blowout. (more…)
Aug 16, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Home builder confidence rises again.
For August 2012, the National Association of Homebuilders reports the monthly Housing Market Index at 37 — an increase of more than 100% from one year ago and the highest HMI value since February 2007.
The Housing Market Index is an indicator of homebuilder confidence and when it reads 50 or better, the HMI suggests favorable conditions for home builders. Readings below 50 suggest unfavorable conditions for builders.
Despite the recent rise in home builder attitudes, however, the Housing Market Index remains mired below 50 where it’s been since April 2006.
For new construction home buyers in Massachusetts , the HMI may offer insight into the market for new homes through the end of this year. This is because the NAHB Housing Market Index is a composite survey, meant to gauge builder sentiment in three specific areas — current business, future business, and buyer activity. (more…)
Aug 15, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Rising home prices are taking a toll on today’s home buyers. For the first time in 4 quarters — and despite falling mortgage rates — home affordability is sinking.
Earlier this week, the National Association of Home Builders reported the Home Opportunity Index, a measure of home affordability, down to 73.8 for the second quarter of the year. This marks the metric’s first “down” quarter since the second quarter of 2011, and is its lowest reading since December 2010.
A home is considered “affordable” when its payments meet standard mortgage underwriting criteria for families earning the local median income. This definition is used for homes across all U.S. markets — including for homes in Worcester County area.
73.8% of homes sold last quarter were affordable to households earning the national median income of $65,000. This is the 13th straight quarter dating back to 2009 that the index surpassed 70. Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index had not crossed 70 even one time. (more…)
Aug 10, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Foreclosure pipelines are re-filling nationwide.
According to data from RealtyTrac, a national foreclosure-tracking firm, the number of foreclosure filings dipped below 192,000 in July 2012, a 3 percent decrease from the month prior.
RealtyTrac defines a “foreclosure filing” as any foreclosure-related action, including a Notice of Default, a Scheduled Auction, or a Bank Repossession.
July marks the 22nd straight month during which foreclosure filings fell on a year-over-year basis. At some point soon, however, that streak may end. This is because, for the third straight month, on an annual basis, foreclosures starts are on the rise.
More than 98,000 homes started the foreclosure process in July, a 6 percent increase from July of last year. Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania experienced the biggest increases, rising 201%, 164% and 139%, respectively. (more…)
Aug 9, 2012 | Housing Analysis
80 U.S. metropolitan markets are showing “measurable and sustained growth” this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ Improving Market Index.
It’s good news for the economy and good news for housing.
The NAHB’s Improving Market Index is meant to identify U.S. markets in expansion. It’s a composite of the three distinct data sets which, as a group, present a more holistic view of a given city’s growth :
- From the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the IMI tracks employment figures
- From Freddie Mac, the IMI tracks home price data
- From the Census Bureau, the IMI tracks single-family building permits
The home builder trade group compiles this data and, in order for a given metropolitan area to earn the label “improving”, the area must meet two specific growth conditions. (more…)
Aug 1, 2012 | Housing Analysis
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 2.2% nationwide, with all 20 tracked markets making month-to-month improvement. On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved.
Despite the positive report, however, our enthusiasm for the May Case-Shiller Index should be tempered. This is because the index’s methodology is less-than-ideal for today’s Massachusetts home buyer.
There are three main reasons why :
- The Case-Shiller Index tracks values for single-family homes only
- The Case-Shiller Index is distorted by distressed, discounted home sales
- The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a 2-month lag
Perhaps even more important, though, is that the Case-Shiller Index ignores a basic tenet of the housing market — all real estate is local. It’s not possible for 20 cities to represent the U.S. housing market as a whole. Even more egregious is that the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller Index don’t represent the country’s twenty most populated cities.
The Case-Shiller Index specifically excludes home sale data from Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose — four of the nation’s 10 most populated cities. Yet, the index does include data (more…)
