Jul 23, 2015 | Market Outlook
Housing markets show continued signs of strengthening according to reports released on Wednesday. The National Association of Realtors® reported that sales of pre-owned homes rose to 5.49 million in June as compared to May’s revised reading of 5.32 million pre-owned homes sold and expected sales estimated at 5.42 million sales. Expectations were based on May’s original reading of 5.35 million sales. June’s reading was the highest since February of 2007. Readings for existing home sales are calculated on a seasonally adjusted annual basis.
Buyers Gain Confidence in Labor Markets, Rush to Beat Rate Hikes
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors® said that buyers may be influenced by rising mortgage rates and encouraged by improving job markets. Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to raise its target federal funds rate this fall, which means that mortgage rates along with consumer lending rates will rise.
The national median home price rose by 6.50 percent annually to $236,400, also a record reading.
While this news paints a rosy picture for housing markets, challenges remain. Strict mortgage standards are an obstacle for first time and moderate income buyers as well as for buyers with less than stellar credit scores. While construction of new homes is increasing, the majority of projects are apartment complexes. 41 percent of housing starts in June were multi-family projects with five or more units. This data falls in line with stricter mortgage standards and a trend for millennials, an expected group of first-time homebuyers, preferring to rent in large cities rather than moving to suburban areas.
FHFA House Prices Rise in May
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that home prices associated with mortgage loans owned or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was unchanged from April’s revised reading of 0.40 percent month-to-month home price growth. April’s month-to-month reading was originally reported at 0.30 percent. FHFA home prices were up 5.70 percent year-over-year in May.
FHFA reported that year-over-year home price growth was positive in all nine census divisions, with the lowest growth rate of 0.90 percent in the Mid Atlantic division and the highest growth rate of 8.40 percent in the Pacific division.
Dec 24, 2014 | Market Outlook
The National Association of Realtors® reported that sales of existing homes dropped to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million as compared to expectations of a 5.18 million existing homes sold. Projections were based on October’s reading of 5.25 million. November’s reading showed a 6.10 percent dip in sales of existing homes and was the lowest reading since May.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last week that the less than robust housing recovery is due in part to tight lending standards. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said that November’s reading was likely an aberration due to volatility in the stock market, which could have dampened home buyer enthusiasm.
Analysts expect easing of mortgage guidelines and an improved job market to help increase home sales. The national median price for existing homes rose to $205,300 in November, which represented a year-over-year increase of five percent. Inventories of used homes rose to a 5.10 month supply, which was more than double the 2.01 month supply of existing homes for sale in November 2013.
FHFA Reports Year-Over-Year Increase in Home Prices
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported a monthly gain of 0.60 percent for home prices associated with mortgages owned or backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. FHFA said that home prices rose 4.50 percent year-over-year in October as compared to the October 2013 reading of 4.40 percent year-over-year. The increase in FHFA home prices was likely connected to a decrease in foreclosure rates and fewer distressed sales.
FHFA house prices encompass the nine census divisions. On a month-to-month basis, FHA home prices rose by 0.60 percent in October. Month-to-month home prices by census division ranged from -0.30 percent for the Pacific division to +1.50 percent for the Atlantic division. On a year-over-year basis, home prices increased for all nine regions and ranged from +0.80 percent in the Mid-Atlantic division to +6.00 percent in the Pacific division.
Oct 24, 2014 | Market Outlook
After months of reports of slowing home price momentum and forecasts of a lagging housing market, we are pleased to report an increased volume of existing home sales as reported by the National Association of REALTORS®.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported rising prices for homes connected with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. Here are the details.
Pedal to the Metal: Existing Home Sales Achieve Fastest Rate in a Year
September sales of previously owned homes reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million sales against expectations of 5.10 million sales and August’s reading of 5.05 million sales.
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that the national reading for sales of previously owned homes rose by 2.40 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.17 million sales.
Analysts had expected September’s reading for existing home sales to reach 5.10 million based on August’s reading of 5.05 million existing homes sold.
Three of four regions posted month-to-month gains in existing home sales for September; only the Midwest showed a decline. Overall, September’s sales pace for existing homes was 1.70 percent lower year-over-year.
Steady home prices and lower mortgage rates contributed to a higher pace of existing home sales, but obstacles remain. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS® said that September’s reading for existing home sales reflected ongoing economic uncertainty; he said that labor markets will need to strengthen in order to maintain the pace of existing home sales.
Mr. Yun also said that restoration of more “normal” lending standards would allow more first-time and moderate income buyers to qualify for mortgage loans and could potentially increase home sales by 10 percent.
FHFA: Home Prices Rise, Mortgage Credit Standards May Ease
FHFA reported that home prices of properties connected with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages rose by 0.5 percent in August as compared to a month-to-month revised increase of 0.20 percent in July. August’s reading represents a year-over-year increase of 4.80 percent as compared to July’s year-over-year increase of 4.60 percent.
In related news, FHFA Director Mel Watt hinted at some welcome news during a meeting on October 21 in Las Vegas.
Strict mortgage requirements are frequently cited as a cause of lukewarm home sales, but there is some hope that mortgage credit requirements may return to pre-housing bubble standards. Mr. Watt said that the agency is working on relaxing certain rules affecting how and when mortgage lenders are required to repurchase loans that they’ve sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
These changes are designed to clarify FHFA regulations and to narrow the criteria for when repurchasing loans is required. Lenders have been using strict mortgage approval standards as a protection against Fannie and Freddie requests to repurchase loans categorized as “early defaults.”
Jul 7, 2014 | Market Outlook
Last week’s economic news was mixed, but economic reports for Non-Farm Payrolls and the National Unemployment rate suggest a strengthening labor sector. Pending Home Sales surpassed expectations in May and conversely, construction spending was lower than expected. Here are the details.
Pending Home Sales Reach Highest Level in Eight Months
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales in May rose by 6.10 percent over April’s reading. May’s reading was 5.20 percent lower than for May 2013. The index reading for May reached 103.9 as compared to April’s index reading of 97.9. Results for all regions were positive for May:
– Northeast: 8.80%
– West 7.60%
– Midwest 6.30%
– South 4.40%
An index reading of 100 for pending home sales is equal to average contract activity in 2001; pending home sales are a gauge of upcoming closings and mortgage activity.
CoreLogic Home Price Index Reflects Slower Price Gains
National home prices rose by 1.40 percent in May and 10 states posted new month-to-month highs, while year-over-year reading slipped from 10.00 percent in April to 8.80 percent in May. Home prices remain about 13.50 percent lower than their 2006 peak.
The overall rate of construction spending slowed in May to an increase of 0.10 percent from April’s reading of 0.80 percent and against expectations of 0.70 percent. Residential construction spending dropped by 1.50 percent in May.
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of average mortgage rates brought good news as the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped by two basis points to 4.12 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was unchanged at 3.22 percent, as was the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage at 2.98 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.50 percent for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage and 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Discount rates rose from 0.30 to 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.
Jobs Up, Unemployment Rate Lower
ADP payrolls, which measures private-sector job growth, reported 281,000 new jobs in June as compared to a reading of 179,000 new private-sector jobs in May. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Non-Farm Payrolls report for June surpassed expectations of 215,000 jobs added with an increase of 288,000 jobs against May’s reading of 224,000 jobs added.
The national unemployment rate fell to 6.10 percent against predictions of 6.30 percent and May’s reading of 6.30 percent.
No news was released on Friday, which was a national holiday.
What’s Ahead
This week’s scheduled economic is lean with no events set for Monday. Job Openings, the minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting, along with regularly scheduled weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims round out the week’s economic news.
Jun 30, 2014 | Market Outlook
Last week brought several economic and housing sector reports including Existing Home Sales, Case-Shiller and FHFA home prices for April, as well as New Home Sales. Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rates survey and the weekly report on new jobless claims were released on Thursday, and Consumer Sentiment for June rounded out the week on Friday.
Existing Home Sales Stronger than Expected!
Good news came from the National Association of REALTORS® Existing Home Sales report for May, which reported 4.89 million previously owned homes sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis. Analysts had projected a seasonally-adjusted annual figure of 4.75 million existing homes sold based on April’s reading of 4.65 million existing homes sold; April’s reading was later adjusted to 4.66 million. May’s reading represented a monthly increase of 4.90 percent over April’s reading and was the second consecutive monthly increase in previously owned home sales.
The median sales price for existing homes sold in May was $213,400, which represented a 5.10 percent increase year-over-year.
May’s reading for existing home sales was the highest in seven months, and mortgage rates trended down during May, but strict lending standards were cited as a significant obstacle to first-time homebuyers.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen recently said in a press conference that mortgage lenders “need more clarity” as to their potential liability for failed mortgages. Mortgage lenders and loan servicing companies can be required to repurchase defaulted loans or to reimburse Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for losses associated with mortgage defaults and foreclosures.
Case-Shiller, FHFA Report Slower Pace for Home Price Growth
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index and FHFA’s House Price Index for April documented slowing rates of home price growth. Case-Shiller reported a 10.80 percent year-over-year growth in home prices for April, and FHFA reported a year-over-year gain of 5.90 percent rate of appreciation for home sales associated with mortgages owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Analysts noted that home price growth is leveling out after last year’s steep appreciation in home prices. While homeowners may disagree, economists say that a slower rate of home price growth can actually bode well for housing markets. More buyers can afford a home, which adds stability to housing markets. First-time buyers provide a foundation for home sales; if they cannot buy homes, then homeowners can’t sell existing homes and buy new homes. A slower but consistent rate of home price growth allows homeowners to build home equity, but won’t likely lead to housing “bubble.”
New Home Sales Blast Past Expectations, Mortgage Rates Fall
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that new home sales for May reached a six-year high with a reading of 504,000 new homes sold on an annual basis. April’s reading exceeded expectations of 440,000 new homes sold as well as April’s adjusted reading of 425,000 new homes sold. The month-to-month increase in new home sales from April to May was the largest monthly increase in home sales in 22 years.
Although analysts caution that month-to-month seasonally-adjusted sales reports are volatile, this uptick in new home sales may help bolster builder confidence in housing markets. May prices for new homes also rose with the median home price at $282,000. This reading represents a year-over-year increase of 6.0 percent for new home prices.
The Northeast led regional results for new home sales with its reading of 54.50 percent; The West reported an increase of 34.00 percent. New home prices in the Southeast rose at an annual rate of 14.20 percent, and the Midwest region reported a 1.40 percent increase in new home prices. While analysts characterized the Northeast region’s May reading as exaggerated, overall results for new home prices indicate a comeback for new home prices.
Freddie Mac put some icing on the good news cake with its weekly mortgage rates report. Average rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped to 4.14 percent with discount points lowered to 0.50 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell by eight basis points to 3.22 percent with discount points unchanged at 0.50 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage fell by two basis points to 2.98 percent with discount points lower at 0.40 percent.
Thursday’s Weekly Jobless Claims Report reading fell by 2000 new claims to a seasonally adjusted reading of 312,000 new claims filed. Analysts had expected a reading of 310,000 new jobless claims. 214,000 per month have been added to the economy from January to May 2014.
Positive economic developments were not lost on consumers. The Consumer Sentiment Index for June posted a reading of 82.5 against an expected reading of 81.9 and May’s reading of 81.2.
This Week’s News
Scheduled economic news includes Pending Home Sales, Construction Spending, the ADP Employment report, and the Non-farm Payrolls Report. The National Unemployment Rate report along with Freddie Mac’s PMMS and Weekly Jobless Claims round out the week. No news is scheduled for Friday’s Independence Day holiday.
