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What to Expect from the 2023 Housing Market

January 10, 2023 – Since the beginning of the pandemic, the housing market has experienced a series of highs and lows. The housing market was already strong prior to 2020, but the pandemic redefined the role of a home, creating a surge in demand which, coupled with record-low mortgage rates and limited housing supply, powered the housing market to multiple records during this unprecedented time – the fastest annual house price appreciation, the lowest days on market in the history of record-keeping, and a near-record annualized pace of sales. But, as mortgage rates increased alongside the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening, the housing market froze up in the second half of 2022, with both buyers and sellers withdrawing from the market. Will the freeze continue well into 2023 or will the housing market begin to thaw?


“The main trend to watch is whether mortgage rates will go any higher and, if so, by how much.”


 

Three Scenarios for the 2023 Housing Market

The popular 30-year, fixed mortgage rate is loosely benchmarked to the 10-year Treasury note, and when investors are concerned about inflation, their appetite for buying bonds diminishes, which puts upward pressure on bond yields and, therefore, mortgage rates. The risk is that rates will continue to increase until we get sustained evidence that inflation is receding. So, the outlook for the housing market is largely dependent on the path of inflation. Below are three possible paths for inflation that are anchored to the Fed’s monetary tightening: the baseline case (the likely), the downside case (the bad), and the upside case (the good).

  • The Likely: The Fed is focused on the dynamics of inflation in parts, and not all parts are trending in the same direction. Core goods inflation increased dramatically in 2021 due to COVID-related supply disruptions and a demand surge for goods by domestic consumers. However, that inflation surge is now quickly fading.Service sector inflation is still rising, largely due to the shelter component. Shelter is considered a service and makes up 57 percent of core services in the Consumer Price Index. By virtue of how it is measured, shelter inflation also lags observed rental and house price increases by approximately one year. Rent and price growth are now decelerating, meaning the shelter component of inflation will cool – it’s just a matter of time.Core services excluding shelter is the last component. Service providers are still struggling to find labor, their primary input. As a result, service sector wages are still growing quickly – faster than the overall rate of wage growth, which is relatively strong itself. The Fed aims to lower consumption demand by setting the federal funds rate at just the right level. The “terminal rate”— the level at which the Fed is expected to stop raising interest rates — for the baseline case is approximately 5 to 5.25 percent, based on FOMC projections. If the Fed reaches this level by mid-2023, then they will likely hold rates at that higher level for the rest of the year.

    As the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, it will put more upward pressure on Treasury bonds and, therefore, mortgage rates in the first half of the year. Higher mortgage rates negatively impact both housing demand and supply, pricing out buyers who lose purchasing power and keeping some potential sellers rate-locked in. Prices will also continue to correct and reflect the new dynamic of less demand relative to slightly more, yet still well below historically normal, levels of supply. If inflation responds as expected in 2023 and the Fed’s terminal rate target is right, mortgage rates may start to decline as inflation expectations ease. Lower house prices and modestly lower mortgage rates would give house-buying power a boost.

011023 Outlook

  • The Bad: The downside scenario reflects an economy that faces stubborn or even worsening inflation, leading the Fed to raise rates beyond the 5 to 5.25 percent terminal rate. This would lead to greater monetary tightness in the market and put even more upward pressure on mortgage rates, raising the probability of a recession. Even higher mortgage rates could further freeze the housing market, prompting even more sellers to stay put than in the base case due to the rate lock-in effect and buyers being further priced out of the market. In this scenario, we will see steeper price declines from the peak, both nationally and across a greater number of markets.
  • The Good: The upside case is that the Fed doesn’t even need to raise rates to the 5 to 5.25 percent terminal rate because inflation comes down faster than expected. This scenario assumes consumers choose to pull back on spending, despite still sitting on a lot of excess savings built up during the pandemic. As a result, mortgage rates may stabilize sooner than in the base case, and potential buyers and sellers would benefit from the lack of rate volatility. Prices would continue to adjust in response to higher rates, which may provide an affordability boost to potential home buyers. But, even in this scenario, the housing market will still struggle from a lack of supply. Potential sellers would still be locked into record-low mortgage rates and hesitant to sell in a higher interest-rate environment.

What Do all Three Scenarios Have in Common?

In all three cases, the housing market will continue to rebalance as prices adjust to the reality of higher mortgage rates. However, the pace of price deceleration and the decline in home sales will be more severe in the downside, higher inflation scenario. The main trend to watch is whether mortgage rates will go any higher and, if so, by how much. Once mortgage rates peak, home sales volume and price declines will stabilize. That all depends on what the Fed chooses to do in the coming months and whether inflation begins to decline.

Credit: First American Title

NAHB: Builder Confidence Dips on Hurricane Damage

Home builders had less confidence in housing market conditions in September. In the aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, builders worried that ongoing shortages of construction labor and materials would worsen.  NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald said that concerns over labor and building materials were “intensified,” but said that builder confidence was expected to return to high readings once rebuilding is underway.

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index dropped three points to an index reading of 64 with all three component readings lower than they were in August. Builder confidence in current market conditions for new single-family homes dipped for points to an index reading of 70. Builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months also dropped points to 74. September’s reading for buyer traffic in new housing developments was one point lower at 47.

Construction Labor and Materials Shortages Expected to Worsen

Home builders have cited shortages of labor and building materials in recent years, but these shortages are expected to grow in coming months due to massive amounts of construction workers needed for rebuilding after severe storm damage and flooding wiped out homes, businesses, and infrastructure. As with the high demand for homes caused by low inventories of homes for sale, labor and materials costs will likely rise as rebuilding begins

The NAHB Housing Market Index measures builder confidence on a scale of 0 to 100. Any reading over 50 indicates that more builders than fewer consider housing market conditions to be in positive territory. While September readings are well within positive territory, approaching winter weather and shortages may cause builder confidence in housing market conditions to decrease.

Regional Builder Confidence Readings Mixed

Three-month rolling average readings for four regions tracked by NAHB had missed results in September. The Northeast posted a one-point gain to 49; the Midwest posted a loss of three points for a reading of 63 and the Southern region posted a one-point loss for a reading of 66. The West posted a two-point gain for a reading of 77.

Future builder confidence readings depend on conditions as storm season continues and winter weather sets in.

New Home Construction Seen As A Possible Solution To Pent Up Demand For Homes

New Home Construction Seen As A Possible Solution To Pent Up Demand For HomesBuilder confidence in markets for new homes fell three points in February to a reading of 58. January’s reading was revised upward to 61. Builders have repeatedly expressed concerns shortages of labor and lots for development, but continue to express confidence in future sales conditions.

David Crowe, National Association of Home Builder’s (NAHB) chief economist, said that builders are watching slowing economic trends, but also cited low mortgage rates, improving labor markets and pent-up demand for homes as factors for strong U.S. housing markets. The NAHB notes that any reading over 50 indicates that more builders were confident than those who were not.

HMI Components Readings

The three readings used to calculate the NAHB Housing Market Index (HMI) were also lower. The reading for current sales conditions fell by three points to 65; the reading for sales conditions over the next six months fell by one point to 65. Home builders were less confident in buyer traffic in new home developments; the February reading dropped by five points to 39. Although the buyer traffic gauge was its lowest in nine months, it hasn’t topped the benchmark of 50 since the peak of the housing bubble ten years ago.

Three month rolling averages for the four regions charted by NAHB also dropped. The Northeastern region was 2 points lower at 47; the Southern region also lost two points for a reading of 59. The Midwestern region lost one point for a reading of 57 and the Western region dropped three points for a reading of 72.

Building New Homes Seen as Solution to Pent Up Demand for Homes

Analysts responded to February’s HMI with mixed views. Some analysts said that buyer demand for homes would override concerns over building costs. This view makes sense in view of pent-up demand driving up home prices. At some point, affordability and buyers ability to qualify for mortgage loans are likely slow the rate of increasing home prices.

Less pent-up demand could also help first-time and moderate income buyers compete for homes as buyer demand eases. First-time and moderate income buyers are essential in driving home sales, as their purchases of pre-owned homes allow homeowners to buy larger homes or relocate.

Reports on Housing Starts and Building Permits scheduled this week will shed additional light on home builder activity.

A Guide to Selecting a Home and Property That Will Suit Your Growing Family

A Guide to Selecting a Home and Property That Will Suit Your Growing FamilyBoth seasoned homeowners and first-time buyers know making the decision to purchase a new home is not one that is taken lightly. There are so many things to consider, from choosing a home with growth potential to finding a community to support a family’s interests and lifestyle.

While the decisions may seem endless, don’t be discouraged. Develop a strategic approach to buying a home with our definitive guide to selecting a home and property that will suit a growing family’s needs. Use this guide, along with advice from a trusted real estate professional in your area, to get started on the path to home ownership.

Look For Neighborhoods With Growth Potential

Choosing the right location is one of the most grappled with decisions when it comes to buying a home. While some home-buyers aspire to “keep up with the Joneses,” purchasing a home in the “trendy” neighborhood of the moment, savvy home-buyers know the best bargains can be found in “up-and-coming” locales.

Skip the higher property values and congestion and search for a home in an unincorporated area with growth potential. This might require driving a few extra blocks for that morning Starbucks coffee, but this will easily be overlooked once the community grows (and your home value with it).

Unfinished Basements Are Your Friend

Sure, most home-buyers cringe when they enter the sometimes scary, always dark and lonely, unfinished basement. But the savvy home-buyer knows unfinished basements are their friend.

A basic renovation can take the space from ghastly to awesome. Unfinished basements provide a number of options for growing families and are a great way to add bathrooms, bedrooms and common areas for kids and teens.

Choose A Home With Income Potential

While the average buyer is interested in a single-family home, don’t discount homes with basement apartments or mother-in-law suites. These types of home configurations can lead to significant income potential and can help to offset the cost of a monthly mortgage payment.

Income potential doesn’t just include garage apartments and mother-in-law suites; it encompasses open space as well. Build a duplex or a guesthouse on extra land for a significant return on investment. Or, take advantage of special land grants to grow crops or house bees on unused acreage.

Think Long-Term When Choosing Schools

When choosing schools, think macro not micro. Remember to evaluate school districts at all levels: elementary, middle and high schools. Don’t choose a community based on the elementary school, if the middle and high schools are not as impressive.

A young child might be an elementary school student upon purchasing the home, but will matriculate through the school district during the course of a 30-year mortgage. Be sure to select a home in a community with a school district that can support youngsters at every level.

For more information about finding a home for a growing family, contact a real estate agent in your area. 

Highest Year-Over-Year Increase In Home Prices Since 2005

Highest Year-Over-Year Increase In Home Prices Since 2005Two major indicators of home price trends showed a slowing momentum for home prices in December. The S&P Case Shiller 10 and 20 city indices reported that of 20 cities tracked, home prices were lower in December than for November.

Case-Shiller’s seasonally adjusted month-to month reading showed that home prices rose by 0.8 percent as compared to 0.90 percent in November.

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said that “Gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of home price recovery may be over.” He also noted that seasonally adjusted data was showing a loss of momentum for home prices.

December home prices posted a year-over-year gain of 13.40 percent, down from November’s year-over-year reading of 13.70 percent. December’s reading reflected the highest year-over-year increase in home prices since 2005.

Analysts note that a slower pace of increasing home prices may allow more buyers to enter the market, and may also encourage more buyers to list their properties for sale.

This would increase inventories of available homes and relieve pent-up demand for homes. Although home price growth is cooling off, average home prices remain 20 percent below their pre-recession peak in 2006.

Home Prices Face Challenges In 2014

Another factor in slower growth of home prices is regional differences in the rate of economic recovery. Cities including Dallas, Texas and Denver, Colorado recently set records for escalating home prices.

Five states including Florida and Michigan accounted for almost half of foreclosures completed during 2013. Slow job growth and poor winter weather were also blamed for slower gains in home prices.

New mortgage rules and relatively strict mortgage lending standards may continue to dampen housing markets, but there is some good news as some lenders are easing credit standards.

 FHFA: Home Prices Higher For 10th Consecutive Quarter

The Federal Housing Finance Administration reported similar trends in December home price data for properties either financed or owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Home prices rose by a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.80 percent in December as compared to November’s reading.

Home prices were 7.70 percent higher for the fourth quarter of 2013 than for the same period in 2012. Adjusted for inflation, this reading indicates an approximate year-over-year increase of 7 percent.

FHFA reported higher readings for 38 states in its fourth quarter 2013 Home Price Index, as compared with 48 states in in the third quarter of 2013.  In order of home price appreciation, the top five states with highest growth in home prices were Nevada, California, Arizona, Oregon and Florida.

These calculations were seasonally adjusted and based on home purchases only.

Case Shiller Price Index Shows Homeowners A Rise In Home Equity

Case Shiller Price Index Shows Homeowners A Rise In Home Equity According to the S&P/Case-Shiller 10 and 20-City Home Price Indices released Tuesday, the U.S. Housing Market is on a roll based on year-over-year increases in average home values, but month-to-month results were mixed.

The 10 and 20-City Home Price Indices showed year-over-year growth of 13.80 and 13.70 percent respectively.

Highlights Include:

  • Dallas, Texas posted its highest rate of annual growth since 2000.
  • Chicago’s average home price rose by 11.00 percent, its highest annual gain since December 1988.
  • The 10 and 20-City Indices posted their best November home prices since 2005.

Top year-over-year gains in home prices included Las Vegas, Nevada at 27.30 percent, San Francisco, California at 23.20 percent, Los Angeles, California at 21.60 percent and San Diego, California at 18.70 percent. Atlanta, Georgia rounds out the top five cities with a year-over-year increase in home prices of 18.50 percent.

The annual readings for the S&P/Case-Shiller 10 and 20-City Housing Market Indices in November suggests that U.S. markets are strong enough to sustain momentum in spite of rising mortgage rates. The month-to-month results show that both indices decreased by an incremental 0.10 percent in November, 2013.

Keeping in mind the traditional slump in home sales during the winter and holiday season, lower month-to-month readings were neither unexpected nor disappointing.

Eight of the nine top cities posting the highest month-to-month growth in home prices were located in the Sun Belt. San Diego, California and Minneapolis, Minnesota home prices remained nearly flat after decreasing in October.

Nine of the 20 cities surveyed posted positive month-to-month growth in home prices. Of the nine cities, only Boston, Massachusetts and Cleveland, Ohio were not located in the Sun Belt.

S&P/ Dow Jones Index Committee Chairman Expects Slower Growth In 2014

David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, noted that November’s month-to-month readings for the 10 and 20-city home price indices indicated that Phoenix, Arizona, Los Angeles California and Las Vegas, Nevada had each posted 20 or more consecutive months of rising home prices.

While positive in his remarks about increasing home prices, Mr. Blitzer also noted that indicators suggested a slower rate of growth during 2014.

This aligns with previously released economic news citing uncertainty about mortgage rates that may continue to rise as the Federal Reserve continues tapering its monthly asset purchases under its quantitative easing program.

The Fed’s FOMC meeting is scheduled to end Wednesday, January 29, at which time the committee’s customary statement will indicate whether or not the Fed’s monthly asset purchases will be reduced from their current level of $75 billion.

On the positive side, Chairman Blitzer said that the low inflation rate (1.50 percent in 2013) and rising home prices are helping homeowners accumulate home equity at a faster pace.